Fractal Upper Edge Works Its Magic Again
2008/8/18 15:09:52
Sincere thanks to everyone for your concern. The issues on this end—no matter how difficult—this ID will do my best to handle. After all, the opportunity is rare. Whether things ultimately work out depends on whether the karmic conditions align.
Today's market is well worth everyone's careful study. The daily bottom fractal upper edge given on Friday—that failing to hold above it would mean continued bottom-probing—today's price action provided the best illustration. And this bottom probe was thoroughly analyzed in the initial three-level rebound analysis. There's generally a 90% probability. The trend to guard against below is simply the possibility that divergence fails to form, meaning we'd first need a third hub. Therefore, the next couple of days are extremely critical. If the downward momentum continues to extend, the probability of a third hub becomes very high. Conversely, the sub-level rebound would then unfold.
One must pay attention: this sub-level rebound may only constitute a third-type sell point of the original large hub, after which even more violent selling would follow. At best after the third-type sell point, it would form a larger-level hub. Therefore, the risks facing this rebound still require attention.
From a fundamental standpoint, the timing aligns extremely well. The weakest form of this sub-level rebound would be a platform pattern—meaning it can't even reach 2500 points—basically coinciding with whenever that certain meeting ends. This is the last chance for the management. If they still act this way, a third-type sell point afterward would be inevitable. This must be clearly understood. All of this was explicitly pointed out in the original three-level rebound analysis, and the market is obviously completely in sync with our analysis.
That's all. This ID's current task is studying and treating illness, while incidentally watching the management's response. Everything is within the analysis—nothing more to say.
Signing off, goodbye.