Quick Market Analysis, Otherwise I'll Miss My Appointment
2007/11/20 23:44:07
Deeply sorry — too many things going on, only got back just now. At least I made it before midnight, so at least the promise of a market analysis tonight can be fulfilled.
Today's broad market remained directionlessly oscillating in a yin-state, which is the norm during a yin-state. Currently, the 5-minute hub oscillation continues. If it persists further, it will extend into a 30-minute one. Looking up, I see a not-quite-full moon. Will this hub oscillation be over by the time the moon is full?
Actually, to some extent this is a process of getting accustomed to a new state. Because the power of this "China Divine Oil" is so immense, the coordinated index control with previous sector rotations always takes a familiarization period. Right now it's small-scale experimentation, followed naturally by larger-scale testing, with intensity gradually increasing — which is normal.
Sector-wise, theme stocks continue to perform, but the China-prefix stocks also started warming up today. The current oscillation is favorable for MACD convergence. Once the daily MACD successfully converges, the rebound space for the broad market will open up. Additionally, once a chart forms like this, regardless of whether this turns out to be the genuine short-term bottom — even if it breaks lower — it's more likely a bear trap. The operation during this period should continue with the hub oscillation method, which makes it quite straightforward.
Actually, from a medium-term perspective, it's the trend after this rebound that's more critical. If it can't effectively push through, then the pressure from the next correction will be truly serious — especially if the daily MACD turns around but can't get above the 0 axis. When that happens, it usually means more severe declines follow. As long as this doesn't occur, the problem isn't too serious.
From a medium-term perspective, the 5-month moving average can still be defended at the moment, so this month's close is very important. As long as the 5-month MA is defended, the bulls will have succeeded. Otherwise, the subsequent slaughter of bulls won't deserve any sympathy.
Currently, during hub oscillation, it's about killing bulls when it can't go up, killing bears when it can't go down — killing from both sides. That's the proper way. Of course, you need the skill for this. Otherwise, if you can't even identify a hub, just go grab a bench and sit down.
As for individual stocks, this ID has said: among all stocks this ID has mentioned, from a medium-to-long-term perspective, none would be abandoned now, because the medium-to-long-term energy is still ample. It's just about using this correction to scalp some price differences, earn some chips. Those without positions should look for opportunities to accumulate. Can't eat everything this year — a big feast is planned for next year, so you can't wait until next year to start preparing.
As for things like PetroChina, those definitely need to be accumulated. It would just be even better at a more ideal price level. Take Shenhua for example — once that coal-to-liquid project goes into production and oil gets pushed to $150 next year, you tell me if there's value? But at 60-something now, it does feel a bit annoying. Then again, a heavy sell-off would also be somewhat difficult, so just work it through oscillations and bring the cost down. If there's an opportunity to go lower, great; if not, so be it. Same mindset for the other aluminum, oil stocks: dynamic replenishment or dynamic position building. Of course, if there's a hard slam-down opportunity, this ID wouldn't mind that either. But will there be one? Even if there is, it would only come once. Whether this one opportunity can actually materialize — let's shine reality into dreams: don't force it, don't let it pass. That's probably the most sensible principle right now.
Heading off. See you.