A Small Fractal Bottom Sparks a Big Rebound

2008/4/22 18:20:45

Attention: this ID has an important announcement tonight. Please stay tuned.

Today, a small bottom fractal appearing on the 60-minute chart sparked a big rebound. The breakout above 3085 confirmed the fractal's formation, and what follows is the question of whether the pullback can hold and ultimately form an upward stroke.

Since today's gains were all generated in the last hour, tomorrow morning will be crucial. The most mechanical level to watch is 3085, while the medium-term key level is 3305.

On individual stocks, financial stocks including banks and brokerages continued to strengthen, proving that long-term capital still firmly believes in the bear trap nature of the move below 3300. The critical factor now is real estate stocks — if they can shift from their previous bearish stance to bullish, the probability of a bull market success increases enormously.

On the policy front, today even Mr. Wang Da was forced to come out. This forced-hand rally has succeeded in securing chips and flushing out some policy response — the effect is obvious. But there's still a lack of hard substance, and that's the key reason the market has been slow to make a big move.

Apologies for being late today due to other matters. Signing off first. See you later.