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A Word to Retail Investor Friends About the Current Situation and Tasks

2007/7/5 23:04:16

First, it must be made clear that your situations and this ID's are fundamentally different in many ways. As you all know, this ID has been busy with PE matters since June. To be very explicit: this ID has already diverted a portion of funds to PE, meaning that even if this ID suffers a major defeat this time, there is still the opportunity for a comeback—and a comeback is guaranteed. Because of this background, first, you don't need to worry about this ID; second, you must understand that this ID doing this is not some reckless, consequence-blind act of bravado, but rather a calculated advance-and-retreat maneuver.

Second, this ID must stand up at this moment. If we lose, at worst we become shareholders. If someday this ID is in a bad mood, I'll just find some boy-toy to acquire the company and become the majority shareholder—but of course, that would be following the old path of the Tang brothers, which is rather boring. Or, after a few more years of tossing about, when this ID gets tired of it, I'll simply stop playing and go into culture instead. But you all don't have such a flexible path of advance and retreat as this ID, so you absolutely must act within your means.

Because this ID knows too much, this battle must be fought. Of course, this isn't just about this ID alone—this ID has done so many things in the market that rallying some people to do something together is no problem. From a purely technical standpoint, doing this is absolutely insane, but people sometimes need a little insanity, especially when something must be done—then you charge forward without hesitation. This ID of course understands the principle in my own theory about patiently waiting for buy points, but from a practical standpoint, this ID must pursue the matter: this buy point cannot be sold out by traitors like the 1000-point one was. From a purely technical standpoint, all of this ID's current actions are wrong, just as from a so-called purely humanitarian standpoint, blocking bullets with your chest is definitely crazy—but people sometimes need to be a little crazy.

However, for ordinary retail investors, there is absolutely no need to participate in this kind of activity. You should use market opportunities to strengthen yourselves; there's no need to do the foolish thing of blocking bullets with your chest. For you, there's no need to know how the buy and sell points of this market are formed through the convergence of forces—you only need to know the result of those converging forces and operate based on the results.

Currently, from the worst-case technical perspective, if this is a mid-level correction of the entire bull run, a rather extreme retracement would be 2/3, meaning a correction down to 2100 points would not be surprising at all. So there's no need for any mindless "standing guard" mentality. Having studied this ID's theory, the only thing you need to adhere to is: buy at buy points and sell at sell points according to your own operational level. Only after you have this capability should you learn from this ID's brand of insanity.

The market is a battlefield. Once war begins, the battlefield is merciless. This ID only considers how to seize the initiative in war. Here, every tactic can be employed. This ID does not want any hesitation while fighting a war—on the battlefield, there is no distinguishing between retail investors and institutions. Moreover, the objective of this ID's current campaign is not to play the liberating army, but to disrupt certain people's rhythm and prevent certain people's objectives from succeeding. If the task of being a liberating army were forcibly tacked on, it would miss the mark on both fronts. Liberation can only be an incidental task, not the premise of the campaign. So this bucket of cold water, this ID absolutely must throw it. This ID has always spoken the truth and doesn't want anyone to have any unrealistic misunderstandings.

For retail investors, the true liberating army in the market can only be yourself. You must master the techniques, you must have a thorough understanding of the stock market, you must understand that stocks are all just waste paper, you must know that stocks are merely certificates for bleeding capital. Then, abandon all illusions. If possible, study this ID's theory well and trade based on chart analysis—this is the way for retail investors to conquer the market. Only when you have strengthened yourself does it become the greatest blow against the traitors and foreign invaders. And since this ID has this capability, of course a greater burden must be borne—this distinction must be made clear.

This ID's current task cannot be accomplished with those original 16 stocks (these stocks will still be attended to from a medium- to long-term perspective; for them, we are in the phase of maintaining zero cost while accumulating more shares). This ID is now opening new battlefields, getting involved in varieties that have more influence on the stock market. The general direction has already been stated: overall listing (including those with the "China" prefix), major restructuring (including the old-tree-sprouting-new-branches type), and small-to-mid-cap growth. Technically, all of these have the annual moving average as support. This ID cannot possibly go and take over funds' or even traitors' high-position stocks—that would truly be insane. But for index-weight stocks like Sinopec, China Unicom, and so on, they naturally need to be gradually brought under control—otherwise, there's no voice in the market. Gradually, this ID will stir up a trend of overall listing, major restructuring, and small-to-mid-cap growth to reverse the entire unfavorable situation.

Now, turning sentiment around is not a matter of a day or two. There must be stocks that gradually develop rallies with rallying power to earn the market's response. Of course, this market doesn't belong to this ID alone. If other powerful players can also choose good targets of attack and contribute their part to market stability and to intercepting the traitors, then this ID's spark can eventually become a prairie fire. And when the market improves, the liberating army will naturally arrive—that is the fundamental way.

Passion alone won't defeat the traitors and foreign invaders—being Boxers won't win the war. Signing off, see you next time.

Three Major Disciplines for Retail Investors

One: Only use idle money to participate in the market.

Two: You must wait for the results of large-scale operations before entering—wait for major-level buy points. Even if this ID loses and the traitors and foreign capitalists win, they will ultimately have to push things up, and in that case, the seeds of revenge can be preserved. "Though Chu had but three clans, they could still destroy Qin"—where there are seeds, there is hope.

Three: Absolutely refuse to carry the high-position sedan chairs of traitors and foreign capitalists. Hone your skills, start from low positions, and gradually bleed them dry.