Everything Is Ready, Just Waiting for the Ping An Matter to Be Settled

2008/3/25 15:09:37

As everyone knows, the trigger for this 2,000-point decline from 5522 was Ping An. Therefore, during the current bottom oscillation, essentially everything is ready—but what's still lacking is a widely anticipated outcome for this Ping An mess. This could also be considered the most basic psychological support for the market to finally break out of its bottom oscillation.

Right now, what's missing is exactly this one thing, but this one thing keeps failing to materialize. If they keep reviewing at this speed, the regulators' efficiency would be truly inexcusable. This year the market has been plagued by petty villains, with some monkey business always popping up at critical moments. How it goes this time depends on the market's luck.

Today's market was once again dominated by low-to-mid-priced thematic stocks. On the individual stock front, many have become quite restless, but as long as the market can't truly break out of the bottom, the sustainability of these individual stock moves is questionable.

From a technical angle, the key ultra-short-term level is at 3616. Once it's effectively broken below again, a break of the bottom and further decline will basically become the inevitable choice.

On the upside, the analysis is the same as before. The first level to face is 3780—if this point is not effectively broken through, the market can only continue to linger at the bottom.

For tomorrow, ultra-short-term, the simplest approach is to watch the 5-minute MACD. It's currently right at the zero axis. If it can launch upward from here tomorrow, it will drive the 30-minute MACD to once again assault the zero axis, which would correspond to an upward thrust for the market. If this scenario unfolds, be sure to watch whether the 30-minute MACD gets blocked at the zero axis again. If it does, you should look to exit positions bought today at an opportune time.

However, for large capital, some positions should be allowed to settle. For large capital, the fundamental principle is dynamic position-building where costs continuously decrease while shares continuously increase.

Signing off, see you later.