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The Next Three Days Are the Technically Most Critical Moment

2008/2/14 15:25:29

First, let me take the evening off — this ID has something tonight. The evening post is hereby docked, apologies.

Regarding 580989 today — a classic price pattern. Whether or not you participated, first make sure you understand this: today's end-of-day rally was deliberately identical to yesterday's. This is a typical deception technique, because one-track thinkers are the most numerous. They assume everything can be cloned, that the same beginning must lead to the same ending, and then they get cloned to death.

The world is this cruel. This trick has been used for several hundred years, and in the Chinese market for well over a decade, and it still works perfectly. People are just like that. Whether you participated, whether you got fooled — learn from it, so maybe you won't get fooled next time.

Of course, similar scams have many variations, because the first N-1 times are all the same, but this N can keep changing. The most awe-inspiring use was the great rebound from Shenzhen's 194 to 334 points over a decade ago — after repeated identical patterns, on the last day came a massive plunge. How many people stayed trapped all the way down to 100 points? Pitiful.

As for the broader market — the next three days are technically critical, because the so-called MACD and similar indicator golden crosses are about to appear. If they want to fool you, this is when they'll do it. But there are two directions of deception at this point: one fools the bears, the other fools the bulls. Watch both carefully.

The big picture — this ID has said it N times, but there are too many confused people, so let me state it clearly once more:

One: The biggest opportunity below is the upward 30-minute trend type that follows the completion of the 30-minute trend type down from 6124. This opportunity is brewing — it's in the mid-yin stage. But that upward 30-minute type, in the worst case, could just be a consolidation and not necessarily develop into an uptrend — this must be clearly understood. If it's consolidation, then oscillate up and down to build a daily-level hub. Then we face the first hub of the daily trend type down from 6124. Whether it subsequently extends into a decline or consolidation, both are entirely possible. If it's a decline, that would be terrifyingly worse than the past few months. So, around March, things are extremely critical for the medium-term trend. Whether comprehensive prosperity continues or what, just watch.

Two: Individual stocks continue to present endless opportunities — new IPOs, high bonus/rights issues, various themed stocks all have their chances. Of course, from an upside perspective, the types this ID favors have been mentioned countless times: environmental protection (including new energy), agriculture, consumer staples, and so on. Short-term, it's obviously the high bonus/rights issue stocks with especially low prices — for example, currently under 20 yuan with a 10-for-10 bonus. Medium-term, chemical stocks are worth watching.

Note: when reading this ID's articles, you must read them consecutively, because some prior conclusions can't be repeated every time — such as the overall market assessment. Also, in the previous wave this ID divided people into two categories: one sits on the small stool, the other can continuously participate in activities. First figure out which category you belong to.

Just like the move from 4778 to 5522 — this ID never told the small-stool sitters to get up. Why? Because that was activity below the 30-minute level. Since we assume the small stool requires at least 30-minute level or above — otherwise it's unmanageable — of course there was no need to get up. Yet countless students of Confucius Man were screaming: why don't you let us up from the small stool when it's going up? First ask yourself: do you have the skill to operate below the 30-minute level? The sharp drop from 5522 was precisely because the level coming up was small, so the level going down was naturally small too. Can you react in time? Those who couldn't move on the way down — have you recognized your own skill level?

Know yourself, or everything is nonsense. Just like 580989 — the opportunity is right there, but first you need the skill. If you can't even assess yourself, then you can only wait to be slaughtered.

Know yourself, then decide your operations based on actual price action. It's that simple — what's there to Confucius Man about?

Signing off, see you later.