Bulls Launch a Desperate Counterattack, But More Effort Is Needed
2007/12/19 15:15:39
As I said yesterday, the bulls face two choices—if they don't even have the courage for a last stand, a desperate counterattack, they might as well die early and reincarnate sooner. Today, with large capital returning and quite a bit of positive news, the bulls finally made some moves, but this is far from enough. It's like boiling a frog—thrashing around a couple more times doesn't mean the frog is about to become immortal.
For the frog to become immortal, for the bulls to truly escape their dire situation, the minimum threshold was mentioned yesterday: 5032 points. This would basically maintain the large-level consolidation around the 5000-point area. Of course, mere consolidation is still useless—the neckline at 5209 points must be conquered, otherwise the frog will ultimately end up as stewed frog.
Technically, today managed to produce a daily bottom fractal, which was basically confirmed by the first wave of the morning rally. Therefore, the first pullback afterward constituted an ultra-short-term second-type buy point. This rebound is the result of the 1-minute downtrend divergence from the decline off 5209 points as mentioned yesterday. So at this juncture, at minimum a 5-minute hub must be established. The appearance of the third buy/sell point of that hub will determine the short-term life or death of the market.
Note that forming a bottom fractal doesn't mean everything is fine. The key is that the price must subsequently hold above the 5-day moving average consistently, otherwise it's just a relay pattern. Combined with the corresponding detailed 5-minute consolidation dynamics, everything will be crystal clear and fully graspable. The operational principles for hub consolidation have been repeatedly discussed in the course—you must practice extensively to truly master them.
This ID is merely a sparring partner here. Ultimately, I hope each of you learns to analyze on your own. If you only hope to come here to get ready-made conclusions, then you'd better not come, because there are none here.
I hope everyone who comes here is someone who doesn't need a crutch and can walk on their own. This ID is just a sparring partner—not even a coach. This principle must be clearly understood.
Signing off for now. See you.
缠中说禅 2007/12/19 15:46:22
If you love me, give me your bodily fluids