The Moon Causes Trouble Again

2007/11/22 15:32:48

Yesterday this ID said, "The moon is almost full—everyone's getting antsy. Whether there'll be another heaven-and-man-in-unity farce, we'll know soon enough." And today it came true. It seems everyone really is passionate about achieving a moderately prosperous society in all respects. Though Saturday is actually the fifteenth, the passion couldn't wait and had to stage a farce on the thirteenth—talk about eagerness.

Of course, from a purely technical standpoint, although the small 1-minute level third-type sell point appeared in the morning, whether the current breakdown can form a larger 5-minute third-type sell point remains unknown. So the bulls aren't entirely out of chances—bread still exists. It comes down to whether the hub can be expanded to a 30-minute one, in which case the subsequent decline would be nothing more than a trap.

Whether it's a trap can be easily judged by whether a large third-type sell point appears and, if so, where divergence shows up. Moreover, the principle of hub oscillation trading has always been: when the push up fails, sell on sub-level upward divergence; when it drops down but doesn't form a hub downshift—at most just hub expansion—then buy on sub-level downward divergence. This is the most basic method, repeated N lessons ago, just a reminder here.

Everything said above is for those with technical skill—or those already very clear on the technicals. For those without skill, this ID's standing advice remains: sit on the small stool and watch.

On the medium-term front, if the bulls remain too pathetic by month-end to even confirm the loss of the 5-month line, then the 10-month line becomes the next reasonably reliable support. But from a daily chart perspective, the 120-day half-year line is approaching. Whether or not it's effectively broken, there should be at least a major bounce around that line to confirm whether 5000 has been effectively broken.

On individual stocks, those with technical skill can dynamically monitor stocks with prospects for next year. Long-term monitoring of a group of stocks is very important for getting familiar with stock personality. Once you're familiar with a stock's personality, your operations become much more confident.

Current operations should all be planned with next year in mind. For stocks you're monitoring, you can dynamically enter during bounce operations to familiarize yourself with their personality. Once the mid-level adjustment is complete, even the wildest horse will have been tamed by you. At that point, fully entering stocks you know intimately—making big money is only natural, right?

In truth, stocks are in some ways like doing business—don't do what you don't know; only what you've mastered can bring big returns. Without some patience, expecting pies to fall from the sky every day—wouldn't that exhaust the pie-makers in heaven?

Today, something even more delightful than the moon causing trouble: England's football team didn't get any pie from the sky either. Die early, reincarnate early—this applies to stocks, and it applies to England's team too. Endless bearish candles aren't much fun.

Lastly, let me request a leave of absence. Tomorrow after the closing analysis is posted, this ID has to immediately drive to Inner Mongolia—five hours. Please don't let it snow, otherwise it'll be a bit dangerous. Since the destination is a large mining site where even mobile signals are spotty, there won't be any writing Saturday or Sunday. Apologies.

Heading off now. Goodbye.