Retest of the Annual Line Shows Temporary Support

2008/2/15 15:39:01

Today's retest of the annual line shows temporary support, but the real question remains early next week—whether the MACD histogram can effectively turn red is the most critical issue for next week. The current situation is quite clear: technically, conditions fully support the unfolding of a rally, but fundamentally and policy-wise, there are too many unsatisfactory factors, which is why we're stuck in this dilemma of being caught between upside and downside.

The policy picture probably won't become clear until after the March meetings, so before that, a volatile environment will persist. During this period, testing up and down, charging left and right is perfectly normal. It's even possible there could be another major plunge to thoroughly wash out the last remaining positions. Of course, this involves the final bottom formation—if it's a head-and-shoulders bottom, then this plunge would be unavoidable; if not, then it's not necessarily coming. Whether it's a head-and-shoulders bottom depends on subsequent news developments; technically, there isn't a strong bias either way.

But individual stock opportunities will continue to unfold. As long as the index is stable and building a base, stocks with catalysts won't be left in the cold. However, operations must be rigorously planned. For example, the stocks mentioned yesterday—those below 20 yuan offering a 10-share bonus—there are actually only a few of them. This ID didn't spell them out explicitly because I don't want to cultivate laziness. If you can't even do your own homework, you might as well hand your account over to this ID and let me wire the money directly to you.

The one that best fits the criteria, if you just do a little homework, is obviously not hard to find—it's 600795. This stock has great earnings; after the 10-for-10 bonus, it's about 9 yuan as of this morning, with very low risk. Moreover, the post-530 bonus share rally performance of Datang Power makes this stock's future trajectory even more exciting. But these are all estimates. When you enter a position, you should know that the small bearish candles of the past two days are forming a minor third-type buy point. Entering above 18 yuan carries roughly 10-15% risk, so you should determine your position size based on your own risk tolerance, buy the corresponding position, and set aside some hedging capital to reduce costs later. With all these arrangements in place, there was plenty of time early this morning for you to enter.

Note: what's being taught here is a way of thinking and operating—it's not necessarily telling you to buy 600795. Besides, it's already rallied now, and chasing at this point would be pointless.

Coming here is not about nurturing lazy people. Please keep this firmly in mind.

580989—this morning gave another chance to exit. If you didn't take it, don't blame this ID. Of course, as long as the market isn't performing well, this thing will keep churning, but at least by exiting, you'd avoid a 20% decline, and that's more than enough.

Weekend—everyone have a good rest. Health is the most important thing.

Signing off for now. Goodbye.