The 1000-Point "Moderately Prosperous" Decline Successfully Completed

2007/11/12 15:28:57

When this ID announced going short, I said that without 1000 points of downside room, it wouldn't be satisfying, so the space had to be created first. Today, the basic mission of 1000 points has been successfully completed. This ID previously gave this decline a name — a "moderately prosperous" level decline. So let me ask: do you all want to stop at moderate prosperity, or continue toward affluence?

Today, the May moving average ambush script continued to play out. Today's bearish news perfectly contributed to the final completion of the bottom divergence in the 1-minute downtrend from 6004. This ID said long ago that once the 1-minute decline from 6004 shows divergence, a relatively significant rebound would occur. Now, the May moving average ambush script and the 1-minute decline divergence script have ultimately merged into one.

Note that this 1-minute decline produced three hubs, followed by a perfect bottom divergence today. The third-type sell point of the last 1-minute hub was the failed gap-fill move this morning, and the subsequent decline formed a line segment quasi-divergence. This, together with the divergence segment of the larger 1-minute trend, forms a perfect interval nesting — such a textbook movement deserves careful study.

After a 1-minute bottom divergence, the most basic upside target is to pull back into the oscillation range of the last 1-minute hub within the original 1-minute decline. This was achieved today, and what follows is a question of how this hub expands into a 5-minute hub. Technically, one needs to watch the position of this 5-minute hub and the subsequent results of hub oscillations.

In plain terms, if everyone decides that short-term moderate prosperity is enough and doesn't want affluence, then this 5-minute hub will produce a third-type buy point. Otherwise, if everyone is eager to rush toward affluence, this 5-minute hub will produce a third-type sell point. It's that simple — go ahead and vote democratically.

Even more plainly, the routine retest of the 5462-5555 neckline using the May moving average trap continues to unfold. Note that a retest doesn't necessarily have to touch 5462 — the weakest retest just makes a show of fumbling around below the neckline for a few days, then bids farewell to the May moving average in a wild night.

Of course, the bulls are not entirely without hope. For the bulls to succeed, first they must make everyone content with just moderate prosperity and not want affluence. Second, they must make good use of the May moving average ambush script, absolutely preventing that wild night from happening — especially not letting a wild night of the full moon happen. Finally, they must find the right opportunity to firmly re-establish above the 5462-5555 neckline.

The above is the only viable path for the bulls. As the saying goes, when enough people walk a path, it becomes a road. From this moment on, if the bulls want to survive, they must keep stomping everywhere, trampling through every sector, to see if they can forge a path.

In plain terms, this means that if the rebound is truly to continue, it must proceed through sector rotation. Put nicely, this is to rally market sentiment; put bluntly, it's just tricking and deceiving new bag-holders into position.

Special emphasis: not every rebound is one that just anyone is qualified to play. From the perspective of this ID's theory, this rebound could very well have already ended. Why? Because the most basic retest of the last hub has already been achieved. So the key now is whether the pullback can form a second-type buy point. If not, the farewell kiss of the wild night will immediately take the stage — though a more appropriate name might be: a farewell by the blade.

Today's market commentary has gotten too long, mainly because I wrote both the entertaining version and the plain version. This ID often writes in my own style purely for fun and brevity, but there are too many humorless people in this world, so this ID takes the extra trouble to include the plain version.

Below is the segmentation from 6004 down — please study it carefully. The green arrows mark the third-type sell points of all three 1-minute hubs. According to this ID's theory, the latest escape point was at 195. Starting from the first green arrow, these so-called third-type sell points actually have little significance — here, I'm just showing how brutal the market can be after a third-type sell point. According to this ID's theory, those who escaped at 195 shouldn't truly begin considering whether to cover until 214. Of course, the premise is that your operations can handle the 1-minute level. If you operate at the 5-minute level or above, then just keep sleeping.

214 is the bottom divergence of the 1-minute downtrend starting from 191, corresponding to a triple interval nesting for positioning. The last layer is the positioning between strokes within the line segment between 213 and 214. The precision is textbook-perfect — the key is whether you can truly understand it and grasp it in real time.

Study it well — this may be more meaningful than debating whether moderate prosperity or affluence is better.

This ID has to travel — flying out tonight, so the evening post definitely won't be written. I'll do the market commentary after market close tomorrow. However, being out of town, the timing may not be very punctual. Also, the evening posts for the next few days probably can't be fully guaranteed, since social engagements will be unavoidable — once again making a great contribution to Moutai and Wuliangye.

Lastly, one question: do you want moderate prosperity or affluence?

Signing off for now, goodbye.