The Biggest Investment Opportunity After Full Tradability
2007/6/10 8:40:52
Just got back to Suzhou from Anhui. Tomorrow will be very busy—if there's no time to write commentary, I'll make it up the morning after. Note: what this ID means by the biggest opportunity is the private equity investment sector, but ordinary people don't have a chance to participate, so you can pay attention to the shareholder 600635 of China's largest VC (now mainly doing private equity) company, as well as other companies with related themes. This theme is still not well-understood by the market; once the market catches on, the price won't be at this level anymore. Let me tell you all plainly: the ChiNext board will definitely launch next year. Both 635 and Weichai Power are mentioned from a medium-term perspective—there's no need to chase them at highs. If you have medium-term capital, patiently wait for a good buy point. Of course, if you already own them, just hold. Ran around a lot of places today; this ID is tired too. Signing off, goodbye.Arrived in Suzhou last night; shortly heading to Anhui to inspect a project being considered for private equity investment—N1 tens of millions for a 10% stake, seems a bit pricey. Tomorrow I might still need to return to Hangzhou. Over the past few days, I've visited quite a few enterprises. Seeing real businesses firsthand, you realize the enormous potential of China's capital market—you realize that this ID saying a 20-year bull market reaching at least 30,000 points might actually be conservative. Take this Anhui company, for instance: its net profit this year is already N2 hundred million. I can't say more specifically—it involves trade secrets.
600635 is this ID's VC stock among that dozen or so holdings. When I mentioned it, it was naturally when this ID was entering heavily—at just over 5 yuan. Why did this ID aggressively buy and tell everyone here to buy? Because it's a 20% shareholder of China's largest VC enterprise. Do you know what the greatest investment opportunity after full tradability is? It's VC—or more precisely, the private equity investment sector. Do you know that the VC enterprise behind 635 turned a 20-million-yuan investment in Weichai Power into nearly 100x returns in just a few years? Do you know why this ID wrote a poem for Weichai Power? Look at the stock's price back then versus now—has it been affected by the broader market? Do you know what market share Weichai Power holds in China's 500-billion-yuan heavy truck market? Of course, this ID isn't telling you to buy now. When the poem was written, Weichai Power was under 60, although even buying now from a medium-term perspective is absolutely fine—the question is whether you have the patience. Just like when this ID told everyone back in April to watch for small/mid-cap stocks with total share capital under 60 million and float under 20 million after the 002100 listing—look at what happened to them afterwards. If you check again in two years, you'll be even more amazed. This ID is baffled—why do people keep saying this ID's theory is only for short-term trading? Some stocks this ID can absolutely hold for 10+ years—the key is whether they're worth holding. This ID can do 419, and of course can do 4N9—the question is what your N is. Who told you this ID only uses technical analysis to buy stocks? Buying stocks based solely on technical analysis is like picking a lover by only looking at their upper body—can someone with only an upper body and no lower body be a good lover?
Yesterday, the PBoC's Ms. Wu was already talking about vigorously supporting private equity investment. This ID's positioning on this front was completed long ago. I can predict that this will be the hottest theme going forward—and note, this doesn't just mean the secondary market, but equity investment itself. This ID is just waiting to be carried in the sedan chair. Now this ID has already begun positioning for something even newer—would it be this ID if I weren't ahead of everyone else?
Breaking my own rule today by talking stocks on the weekend—my apologies. The car is here, heading to Anhui right now, can't say more. Let me close by revisiting that five-character quatrain for Weichai Power:
Once it was Xiang Torch,
Now it's Lu Weichai.
A decade's wind and clouds,
Seven feet—an old, worn frame.
缠中说禅 2007/6/10 21:57:02
Just got back to Suzhou from Anhui. Tomorrow will be very busy—if there's no time to write commentary, I'll make it up the morning after.
Note: what this ID means by the biggest opportunity is the private equity investment sector, but ordinary people don't have a chance to participate, so you can pay attention to the shareholder 600635 of China's largest VC (now mainly doing private equity) company, as well as other companies with related themes. This theme is still not well-understood by the market; once the market catches on, the price won't be at this level anymore. Let me tell you all plainly: the ChiNext board will definitely launch next year.
Both 635 and Weichai Power are mentioned from a medium-term perspective—there's no need to chase them at highs. If you have medium-term capital, patiently wait for a good buy point. Of course, if you already own them, just hold.
Today I ran around a lot of places; this ID is tired too. Signing off, goodbye.