"Currency Wars and the RMB Strategy" Sequel 5: From Net Assets to Market Value—The Inevitable Path of Capital's Bloody Game
2007/4/17 15:36:26
Yesterday this ID posted "From Net Assets to Market Value: The Nuclear Driving Force of the Great Bull Market," but today an antidote is needed. "Antidote" doesn't mean there's anything wrong with that article, but the deeper meaning of this phenomenon itself must be revealed: to make capitalism die, you must make capitalism extraordinarily excited, until it expires from exhaustion. So what is the trick behind capitalism's gradual excitation?
The establishment of the capital market is the most fundamental part of this gradual excitation trick. Under capitalism's illusion, there's the illusion of currency, then the illusion of capital, then the illusion of the capital market. At the general capital level, the transaction principle references so-called net asset value. With the capital market, a principle of equivalence between physical and virtual assets is introduced. So it naturally becomes a transaction game based on tradeable market prices. Here, a simple trick can swallow vast social resources into a virtual space like a snake swallowing an elephant. In essence, this is ultimately a grand wealth redistribution process. To put it bluntly: when capitalism's overt exploitation becomes impossible, this transactional trick of physical-virtual asset equivalence becomes capitalism's upgraded exploitation.
The unevenness of economic levels and stages between nations turns this virtual-real game into the most direct weapon in economic warfare between nations. A powerful capital market, like a black hole, absorbs world resources in a globalized context, converting them into development fuel. Any economic entity in a globalized system without a powerful capital market that fantasizes about winning currency wars or financial wars will forever be fantasizing. Under modern economic conditions, any great power's rise in a globalized world is a capital superpower's rise—a powerful capital market's rise. A great power's rise is the rise of its capital market—this is indisputable in the modern economic environment. Whoever controls the capital market essentially controls that nation's economic lifeblood and heart.
Opposing exploitation often conceals deeper exploitation, because exploitation has long been invisible and upgraded. From the perspective of social resource utilization, any opposition actually promotes exploitation itself. Capitalism has long evolved into such a beast: any exchange and utilization of social resources becomes behavior that strengthens it. Everyone is lost in capital's demonic nature. Everyone floating in capital's demonic nature provides fuel for this capital beast. And the virtual-real game will likewise consume everything. Those who oppose capitalism are ultimately consumed by it. Even in death, their funeral constitutes a transaction, constitutes GDP, adding bricks and tiles to capitalism. Those who oppose the capital market are ultimately consumed by the capital market—the capital market efficiently allocates social resources. The capital market's yang-harvesting technique extracts only essence, and all transactions, all people, are filtered and consumed by it.
This ID has never opposed this game, because this game will inevitably be played—and is being played, realistically and irreversibly. An indeniable fact: human sacrificability has limits. If a person's survival is generally no longer an issue, all movements hoping to use human sacrifice as a rallying cry will ultimately fail to mobilize. All tricks attempting to defeat capitalism through justice, principles, or ideals are ultimately just tricks. And a highly developed capitalist society is inevitably a highly dumbed-down one. The degree of capitalist development is positively correlated with the general degree of human stupefaction. Hence we have garbage products and pop culture. Popularity and garbage generate massive transactions—that's the crux of the matter.
From net assets to market value remains the nuclear driving force of the great bull market. This ID continues to vigorously engage in the capital market. The virtual-real game remains a powerful weapon for great-power rise. All inequality and bloodshed remain unequal and bloody. This is the brave new world of capitalist globalization.
Replies
缠中说禅 2007/4/17 15:46:14
[Anonymous] Studying Chan
2007-04-17 15:45:11
The simplest weapon, the 5-day line------remembered.
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That's for one-directional trends. During consolidation, it's not very useful.
缠中说禅 2007/4/17 15:48:46
[Anonymous] Happy New Year
2007-04-17 15:39:22
So grateful to Chan sis today—helped me buy 416.
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416 is from the second batch of 14 stocks. I told everyone to buy at 2 or 3 yuan —who's been holding as of now? You can't make big money from limit-up boards alone.
缠中说禅 2007/4/17 15:53:11
[Anonymous] Chan Heart Dragon
2007-04-17 15:40:42
Hello, blogger.
I have some uncertainty about the level of divergence. In an a+A+b movement, where a and b are 5-minute movements and A is a 30-minute hub—if a and b exhibit consolidation divergence, is this 30-minute level divergence? And is this typically judged on the 30-minute chart?
Then in same-level decomposition, if Ai is a 5-minute movement and Ai+2 shows consolidation divergence with Ai, what level is that divergence? Also 30-minute? Judged on the 30-minute chart or 5-minute chart?
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If you predetermine which chart to look at, that involves prediction—which is wrong. The right approach: whatever level's chart shows the divergence, that's the level. Of course, generally in your described situation, it'll be visible on the 30-minute chart—but these are two fundamentally different ways of thinking.
缠中说禅 2007/4/17 15:55:04
[Anonymous] Happy New Year
2007-04-17 15:50:32
The 10:30 and 13:40 points look obvious in hindsight, but previous days always pulled up directly around the 10:52 point. Who knew today would have another wave down? I bought back around 10:52 and went full position—then when it dropped further, I had no money left to buy.
Chan sis, how did you judge today's second wave down?
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Those so-called one-wave completions were parts forming the hub—different nature. Don't mix them up.
缠中说禅 2007/4/17 16:03:35
[Anonymous] Can't Figure It Out
2007-04-17 15:44:27
Hello, blogger!
Even when using same-level decomposition at the main level, you still need non-same-level decomposition rules for sub-levels and below. So non-same-level decomposition is unavoidable in practice. I feel many previously taught concepts weren't well understood—actually due to unclear non-same-level decomposition rules, inevitably causing severe misunderstandings. Non-same-level decomposition should have many more details—those are exactly the fuzzy areas in practice, affecting how movements are read. Please clarify non-same-level decomposition principles.
Do the three types of movement combinations in Lesson 16—reversal, continuation, and trap—represent all possible decomposition scenarios?
Taking the upward continuation type (uptrend + consolidation + uptrend): must the "uptrend" be a trend? Can the uptrend's level be two or more levels below the consolidation's level?
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This was covered in the past two lessons: how to decompose when small levels become big levels, how to decompose when divergence levels match—all explained. Decomposition always starts from the divergence point.
缠中说禅 2007/4/17 16:06:35
[Anonymous] II
2007-04-17 15:57:15
Chan MM:
Today I felt great!~~~ Reality's paradise, theory's heaven!
Bought back at 11:30 AM and again at 1:40 PM.
But I want to ask: how do you read divergence on the intraday chart? At work, I only have intraday charts.
If you could help me with this question, it would solve my biggest difficulty right now.
Sister, you are our heaven :)
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Look at the 1-minute chart. For sub-1-minute levels, just look at bar areas.
缠中说禅 2007/4/17 16:09:51
[Anonymous] Happy New Year
2007-04-17 16:05:44
(Asking about 416's holding history)
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Chan sis's lesson is right. I just couldn't hold—always sold at divergences, didn't know to rebuy, switched to other stocks. Kept switching around, always losing. I must fix this habit.
Also, "that VC stock repeatedly emphasized as not being in the 14"—can someone tell me which one? I forget. Not Ziguang, right?
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Ziguang is in the 14. Obviously you should know this stock—who is currently China's largest VC and who is their shareholder? There's only one answer: Dazhong. Back then it was just over 5 yuan. Who held to now? If you missed it, forget it—don't chase highs.
缠中说禅 2007/4/17 16:11:33
Best not to ask about specific individual stocks—there are many eyes and ears here. If this ID says too much, people say this ID is manipulating something. Can't speak freely—might as well not say anything.
缠中说禅 2007/4/17 16:14:34
[Anonymous] Late Awakening
2007-04-17 16:11:35
Chan master: I've copied this for the 5th time:
Felt great today. Have been feeling great every day recently.
"To make capitalism die, you must make capitalism extraordinarily excited, until it expires from exhaustion. So what is the trick?"—this sentence equally applies to the current market rally. Many stocks are doing exactly this.
The market seems to have its own hand. Though I'm slow, I can clearly feel its pulse. In our group I noted 3550 as a support level to watch. When it first rebounded, I also told the group to watch whether the rebound pattern matches the first time. Today's 1-minute movement has traces of manipulation, but the market's structure is still clearly visible—after all, the rebound pattern differed.
Rate hikes aren't scary. Though tiresome, they'll keep coming, perhaps cyclically. But every time, the stock market doesn't top from such pressure. Still, watch the market. When excitement reigns, nothing can stop the thrill. The question is just when the climax arrives.
I'm not guessing at anything. Regarding stocks you mentioned, I offer: 000802, 600198, 000598.
Finally, a question: Chan master, please analyze 000616. Its planned additional issuance got rejected by management. Please help analyze.
Thanks!
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Look at the movement—the movement reflects everything. Do you think this kind of movement has problems?
缠中说禅 2007/4/17 16:24:46
[Anonymous] White Poplar of the Loess Plateau
2007-04-17 16:18:26
Blogger, I'm a beginner in Chan theory. Please advise:
600607 Shanghai Industrial Medical: on the daily chart, March 1 to March 13 formed a daily hub, then hub extension. April 11 broke through the hub. Currently, if the 30-minute pullback doesn't break below 14.82, it forms a daily third buy point. Correct? Thanks!
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Incorrect.
缠中说禅 2007/4/17 16:26:45
[Anonymous] Setting Off
2007-04-17 16:22:34
Another question for the Chan master: do you like stamps? Is the stamp market healthy?
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Don't play God—only God worries about so-called health. A market is a market—it has nothing to do with health.
缠中说禅 2007/4/17 16:32:07
Sorry, it's 4:30. Must go. Lots of things tonight.
Goodbye.
缠中说禅 2007/4/17 15:38:56
Today—did you feel great? This kind of oscillation is this ID's theory's paradise. Open the 1-minute chart and look at the 10:30 and 13:40 points—if you still can't see what they are, more importantly, if you had no reaction at those moments, you still need more study. For those who temporarily can't learn this, this ID has already given the simplest weapon: the 5-day line. Of course, this misses many short-term opportunities, but it's still better than all those market-top-predicting gurus.
The reason for today's oscillation is quite simple: important data is being released tomorrow. But there's an even more important piece of news today: future Hong Kong listings must be above $1 billion. This fully demonstrates that current management remains a Shandong man. With such a great market that can solve big problems, not fully utilizing it would be truly stupid. Hopefully management continues being a Shandong man. But this ID still doesn't plan to praise them. Of course, someone managed to con their way into publishing in a certain newspaper today—to resort to such pathetic tricks, the traitors are really pitiful.
But even in the smoothest times, caution is essential. The market is forever a risky market; stocks are forever waste paper. Any chasing highs or panic selling is suicidal. Tomorrow's data affects short-term movement. If data is bad and there are strong rate-hike expectations, continued oscillation is normal—but the major direction doesn't change. And rate hikes are a tiresome thing—if still used, they've truly lost their minds.
On individual stocks, nothing to say. Second-tier opens space, third-tier continues—this was said long ago. But it must be pointed out: some people's operations are too chaotic. If technique isn't there, can't you at least just hold? Like those 14 stocks—today more than half made new highs again. How many held on? 600578, 600777, 000915—those previously slow ones—does anyone still have them? That VC stock repeatedly emphasized as being outside the 14—probably nobody held it. Small and mid-cap stocks—how to track them medium-term—probably nobody had patience either.
Note: if those stocks have risen too much and you missed them, forget it. This ID is against any chasing of highs. As said last night, for the patient: look for stocks where bad earnings results seem likely. If they announce bad earnings but the stock actually rises, watch them closely—especially those at low price levels. This technique isn't hard to spot. Find buy points and enter. Currently, during the regulatory period, this ID can't be too specific—can only describe the general direction.