There Is Indeed a Potential Risk of Complete Bubble Expansion

2007/10/17 8:44:44

I need to catch a flight back to Beijing after the market close this afternoon. Market commentary will be in the evening — my apologies.

Today, both major newspapers simultaneously discussed the issue of comprehensive bubble expansion — this is one of the strongest possible warnings that could be issued during the conference period. Obviously, given the Chinese temperament, face matters more than substance, and no one would tear off that last veil unless absolutely forced to. The Chinese have always practiced "courtesy before force." Therefore, before the May 30th incident, the numerous risk warnings were already the utmost in conscientiousness. The only thing wrong about May 30th was the timing of the announcement — if it had been released the next morning, the release would have been perfect.

Currently, there is indeed a tendency toward complete bubble expansion. Once a comprehensive bubble bursts, the adjustment period will be extremely prolonged. At present, if the market can undergo a medium-term consolidation, it would benefit the long-term development of the market. Therefore, this ID has already stated clearly: if the policy window around November doesn't open and launch a low-price revolution, then the bulls' last reserves of spirit and energy will be exhausted, followed by the end of the first phase — and however things are supposed to die, they'll die. But if the policy window around November opens in timely fashion, then the first phase of the great bull market isn't over yet and can be extended for a longer period.

Everything is the collective karma of all participants. If everyone's combined forces are hell-bent on going to hell, then this ID has no objection. For this ID, hell and heaven make no difference — one can suck blood in a bear market just as well, and it's even more thrilling, with more casualties. Bloodthirst has always been the market's true nature.

Of course, if this market can be saved, if the first phase of the bull market can be extended longer, this ID will also make efforts toward that end. But whether it succeeds — that's the business of all participants. This ID travels freely between heaven and hell — it makes no difference. It's just a pity for the common people. If the bull market's energy is exhausted too quickly, entering a major adjustment, or even if the economy enters a major adjustment, with inflation unsuppressed — countless people will suffer again.

Sometimes, if a person loves death, perhaps it's better to just let them die. This ID is indeed sometimes too meddlesome.