Hotspots Spreading — Nothing New Under the Sun
2007/8/14 15:49:37
Of course, there's nothing new where there's no sun either. Today's market movement has only one characteristic: nothing new. Since last week, this ID has repeatedly emphasized that hotspots are beginning to spread. Today, the hotspot spreading has begun to blaze like wildfire.
From the top 50 to the CSI 300 to second and third-tier stocks — this ID has already drawn out the roadmap for hotspot spreading. Now, it's merely one variation playing out along that roadmap. As they say, nothing new under the sun.
Today, point 35, the third type of buy point for the 5-minute hub at 14-27, was finally squeezed out. (I occasionally see people asking why it's not nine segments? Nine segments can extend into a 5-minute hub, but that doesn't mean a 5-minute hub must be nine segments — don't confuse such simple logical relationships.)
After a 5-minute third type of buy point, there are only two options: 1. Continue rising until a new 5-minute hub forms; 2. Form a larger-level 30-minute hub around the current position.
For now, the key is the continued spreading of hotspots — as long as that's not a problem, everything is manageable.
From the daily chart perspective, here are two thinking exercises:
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Has the current daily-level divergence segment been resolved? Hint: the key is which segment is compared with which. If you can't even identify the objects being compared, what's the point of talking about divergence segments? Let alone precise positioning.
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After breaking through the 1/2 line at 4174, where is the next real resistance line?
Note, this ID's strategic transition will not affect any blog activities. The only change is that evening articles may sometimes be shifted to morning due to social engagements — that's all. Moreover, this ID is currently in strategic transition — zero-cost stocks will not be sold. Stocks that haven't reached zero cost won't be recklessly sold either — without reaching a sell point, why would one sell? Today, those who managed to buy 002149 below 49 should thank this ID. Some fool actually tried to force this ID to exit below 50 by attempting to suppress the price at the opening. Brain waterlogged, much? This ID will sell at least half of this stock, but thinking this ID would sell below 49 first thing in the morning? Seriously delusional.
Questions can be answered until 4:30 today.
Replies
缠中说禅 2007/8/14 15:58:20
[Anonymous] Sina Netizen Delete all comments by this person
2007-08-14 15:54:47
Can you share your views on the "subprime debt" issue?
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This type of question was already addressed in this ID's posts about currency wars. One analogy used was: America's engine has carbon buildup and needs to be replaced with a new one. The new one could be a new country, such as China, but Americans obviously aren't happy about that. The only thing that would make Americans happy is having the whole world chip in to buy America a new engine. And everything America has been doing since 2001 is exactly this kind of scheme, no matter how many names it changes.
缠中说禅 2007/8/14 16:01:58
[Anonymous] Sina Netizen Delete all comments by this person
2007-08-14 15:56:06
Why isn't the third buy point at 33?
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If it were 33, the preceding departure's 1-minute move would be incomplete. As it stands now, the departure is 27-32, the pullback is 32-35 — both are standard 1-minute trend types.
缠中说禅 2007/8/14 16:06:43
[Anonymous] 举杯邀明月 Delete all comments by this person
2007-08-14 16:01:22
Teacher, I have a question. If I operate using 5-minute and larger K-line timeframes, do I still follow the same method of stroke → line segment → hub?
Also, I hope the teacher can continue the stock course lectures. Please don't really leave us.
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When did this ID say anything about leaving? This ID only said no more new purchases in the secondary market — buying only made this ID angry.
Please first understand the difference between "microscope" and "being microscopied." You can certainly only look at the 5-minute chart — that's equivalent to using a less precise microscope. Doesn't the 5-minute chart also have line segments and strokes?
Using strokes and line segments on the 1-minute chart is merely a more refined microscope. This doesn't affect operations at any timeframe level.
The key is the precision requirement. But strokes, line segments, etc. are necessary for charts at any precision level. Didn't this ID demonstrate in one lesson how to identify strokes and line segments on a monthly chart?
缠中说禅 2007/8/14 16:08:26
[Anonymous] Sina Netizen Delete all comments by this person
2007-08-14 15:52:25
K-line n-1 range [8,10]
K-line n range [9,10]
Are these two K-lines in a containment relationship?
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Of course they are.
缠中说禅 2007/8/14 16:10:59
[Anonymous] Sina Netizen Delete all comments by this person
2007-08-14 16:08:05
If you're so bearish, why not dump your stocks?!
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When has this ID ever been bearish? At least a 20-year bull market, and currently we're only in the first phase — these views require no revision. The reason this ID won't buy any more secondary market stocks is simply because this ID can buy cheaper stocks through PE with bigger opportunities — that's all.
缠中说禅 2007/8/14 16:22:29
[Anonymous] Sina Netizen Delete all comments by this person
2007-08-14 16:05:39
I'd really like to ask the blogger a question: Do you think China can this time avoid the fate Japan and Southeast Asia experienced — the eventual bursting of asset bubbles followed by economic recession and widespread depression? Or at least, could it be not as severe?
Although China did experience two rounds of inflation in the 1980s and 1990s, at that time China was a relatively closed economy compared to now. Perhaps the intensity after the bubble burst could be internally absorbed. But now that finance has opened up, should we compare the situation to Japan and Hong Kong back then?
I hope to hear your thoughts. I also seem to recall you mentioning a "yearly-level adjustment" view, which I think is quite possible. After all, this time China has to face capital from around the world, plus the big sharks who've been playing the money game for centuries.
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How can Japan and Hong Kong back then compare to present-day China? Right now America is the sick man, and before America recovers, China's key task is how to skillfully apply the art of dissolving force — so that even when America recovers, half its strength has been siphoned away.
If global inflation occurs, no one can escape. At that point, it's about who recovers fastest. Obviously, if China doesn't play the fool, it will definitely be China — there are profound industrial chain reasons for this, and when there's time, I'll write a post about it.
As long as China can be the first to recover, then it doesn't matter what happens. If a 1929-style crash truly occurs, no one can escape — holding any currency or any asset is meaningless. That's the essential nature of capitalism — just a game.
The question isn't how to escape a 1929 — that's inescapable. The only difference is the magnitude of loss. Surviving with the minimum cost is the greatest success, just like the catastrophe that wiped out the dinosaurs. In the face of that catastrophe, the only question was how to survive through it, not praying the catastrophe wouldn't come. Earth's future masters could only emerge from among the survivors. Whether for nations or individuals, the principle is the same.
缠中说禅 2007/8/14 16:24:52
[Anonymous] Sina Netizen Delete all comments by this person
2007-08-14 16:11:55
Boss, has the policy risk you previously mentioned for August been resolved now?
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We should actually thank America's latest meltdown for this. In such an international environment, who would dare recklessly tighten policy — that would be suicidal. So policy isn't omnipotent; policy is merely the result of the resultant of forces. But don't overdo it either — after all, scores can be settled in autumn. Of course, it's still summer right now, so let's get through summer first.
缠中说禅 2007/8/14 16:29:32
[Anonymous] 天眼 Delete all comments by this person
2007-08-14 16:21:55
Boss, I'm a bit confused about several questions:
A. Regarding K-line containment relationships.
I. If K-line n-1's high and low points are entirely within K-line n's range, are n-1 and n in a containment relationship?
Of course they are — is there any doubt about this? For consecutive containment relationships, you must merge them one by one in chronological order.
II. Are the following situations containment relationships?
Assuming the high and low points of K-lines n and n-1 are gn, dn, gn-1, dn-1:
- gn=gn-1 and dn>dn-1;
- dn=dn-1 and gn<gn-1;
- dn=dn-1 and gn=gn-1;
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Of course they are.
缠中说禅 2007/8/14 16:30:52
[Anonymous] Sina Netizen Delete all comments by this person
2007-08-14 16:29:13
Isn't it inaccurate to say 14-27 forms a 5-minute hub?
Because the highs of the 3 sub-movements starting from 14 aren't high enough?
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What does a hub have to do with whether the highs are high enough? The key to a hub is having overlapping portions.
缠中说禅 2007/8/14 16:36:13
Nian Nian Yi Bian San Delete all comments by this person
2007-08-14 16:28:18
2007-08-14 16:01:08
Master Chan, having read your post yesterday, we small retail investors can't participate. But I think 600635, following your macro thinking, should be a big bull stock, right?
Also: Master Chan has mentioned multiple times that 636 is a strategic position-building stock. I just got in too early and am slightly underwater. Does Master Chan's "no more secondary market buying" include 636?
Master Chan please don't leave yet, this is my third attempt posting, hoping for a reply! Thank you.
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Not buying means not buying anything. However, for 600636, this ID bought quite a lot around 10 yuan. Originally intended to keep buying, but since the decision is to stop all purchases, then no more buying. Tactics serve strategy. This ID won't buy, but naturally others will.
For stocks like 600737, Chalco, Air China, and other China-prefix stocks, as well as the original dozen or so, this ID will continue to hold. For those not yet at zero cost, this ID will look for opportunities to bring them to zero — that's the art of extracting capital. The extracted capital all leaves the secondary market to go do PE. That's all.
缠中说禅 2007/8/14 16:37:08
Sorry, it's already 4:30. This ID needs to leave first. We'll chat again when there's an opportunity.
Goodbye.
缠中说禅 2007/8/14 15:53:05
Sina's version change is really beyond words. Everyone just make do. This ID can barely tolerate it anymore. But there's no choice — this ID is sentimental. A new place would have new problems just the same, so let's carry on.