3780 Lifeline Lost, Retesting the Bottom Again

2008/3/24 15:16:13

Last Friday I said it in the clearest possible terms: 3780 points is the short-term lifeline — if it can't hold, the bottom gets retested. This morning, after breaking below 3780, two failed retest attempts confirmed the breakdown as valid. Then, after the standard type-three sell point was established at 2:00 PM, the magnitude of the decline noticeably increased. Everything was extremely technical.

If you failed to capture the rhythm of selling first and buying back later, then congratulations — you're riding the elevator again. Of course, those who saw the 3780 failure, or at latest exited at the type-three sell point, have already successfully cashed out last week's bottom-fishing profits. Shiny silver awaits the next buying opportunity.

However, since we're already in the oscillation zone of a medium-term bottom, accumulating a certain base position during each oscillation is entirely reasonable. This depends on each person's capital size.

If you can't bear to sell on the way up, can't bear to sell when technical levels break, and treat stocks like precious treasures, then I suggest you just sit on your little stool and watch. The current market remains laden with deadly traps. With that kind of mentality, the only path is a dead end.

Now we're just waiting for the Ping An matter to reach a resolution. The regulators can't just talk without acting — the materials were submitted ages ago. There should be an answer by now, no matter what.

On individual stocks, last time I emphasized low-to-mid-priced small-to-mid-cap stocks that had dropped over 40% in the short term. For example, the Swan stock with its four consecutive daily limits was the most classic case. Next time, it'll still be this kind of stock, but pay attention to those with double-bottom support, and they must show signs of new capital entering — meaning a surge in volume followed by a volume contraction that still holds firm.

Some people were hyping blue-chips over the weekend, but this ID still insists: themes are what's real. Low price, restructuring, and themes are this year's unchanging motif.

Signing off. Goodbye.