First Rise Then Fall, Brewing Oscillation.

2007/7/30 15:19:35

Last week's analysis was very clear: as long as the current barbell lifters can hold, more bears will flip to bulls. Today, last night's Iraqi spirit apparently gave the barbell lifters a bit of fighting blood, so today these people mobilized all their strength and ultimately held what needed to be held.

The market is such a food chain. This ID, having entered in the first wave, waits for those who entered above 4000 to carry us higher, and those who entered at 4000, having held 4300, naturally attract a new wave of entrants. So now the 4000-point entrants are also in a comfortable position — and for someone like this ID, even more so. There are already two layers of protective membrane above.

But as I said very clearly last week, whether this week's weekly candle chooses the second or third scenario is the key. If it's the second, then the weekly candle will have a long upper shadow; if the third, the correction will manifest on the daily chart. So, as said over the weekend: first rise then fall, and the subsequent correction pressure increases. Today's movement is brewing oscillation for what comes next.

On the monthly chart, tomorrow is the closing day. So, standing from the perspective of the third-wave capital entering at 4300, a doji would be the most ideal. For the second wave entering at 4000, a bearish candle is also acceptable — as long as 4335 isn't broken. Of course, for this ID who entered at 3600, even a big bearish candle doesn't matter — it just provides another short-term trading opportunity. Therefore, starting tomorrow over the next three days, it's a game between the 4300-entry and 4000-entry waves of capital. This ID continues to watch the show, occasionally playing a Three Kingdoms gambit.

On individual stocks, today's rotation was decent, but real estate and similar sectors face correction pressure. Currently, the key is whether the unactivated index-component stocks and those with thematic catalysts can keep up. In other words, can the batch that entered at 4300 resolutely hold? If they hold, the first two waves won't deliberately harm them, because if they hold, a fourth wave will enter. If there's harm to be done, it targets the Nth wave. Of course, N can equal 3.

Busy. Signing off. See you.