Know Yourself
2008/3/18 16:23:40
Every major crash, some people are severely battered or even eliminated — this is simply the most normal thing in the market. The market is not a charity; it has always been a bloody game. If you can take something away from it, then perhaps the ordeal wasn't entirely in vain.
A person must have self-knowledge. For example, you must have a thorough grasp of your own personality. Certain personality types are absolutely unsuited for the market — for instance, the single-minded, the dependent, and so on.
The defining characteristic of the market is constant change. You cannot demand anything from the market, because the market is always right — the one who's wrong is always you. But some people's personalities simply refuse to admit mistakes, and the only destination for such people is death in the market.
We can criticize government policies all we want, but we can't roast ourselves over a fire while doing so. This ID is often astonished by the endurance of certain people — losing money day after day while doing nothing but cursing. The market has never left any room for such people to survive.
The market is forever filled with irrationality. If you demand rationality, then don't come to the market. The only purpose of entering the market is to make money. If irrationality can make money, then it becomes rational.
People with too strong a sense of justice are unsuited for the market. Only by conquering the market does justice exist — losers never have any claim to justice.
One-directional trends are always rare. A run like the one in the past two years is hard to encounter even once in a decade. The market, at its core, is dominated by oscillation, and the profits ultimately generated by oscillation are absolutely no less than those from one-directional moves. Those who can't handle oscillation lack a weapon in the market — riding the elevator is a minor issue, but often they fall into a well and can never climb out.
So for those who can't handle oscillation, the best choice is avoidance. If one-directional opportunities come only once in 10 years, then play once every 10 years — what's wrong with that? Why must you be in the market every day getting thrashed around?
If you don't have the skill, stay away. It really is that simple. Unfortunately, human greed blinds people, and then you reap what you sow — there's nothing to sympathize with.
The cruelty of the market is not directed at any individual — it is the market's nature. Without a deep understanding of this, the only road is death.
Let me say something harsh: this decline is actually rather mild. Want to see what harsh looks like? If this rally can only form a 1-minute hub on the 60-minute chart, and then evolves into a 1-minute decline on the 60-minute level — that's when you'll see what harsh really means.
To survive in the market, you must become a steel warrior. Even if the national economy collapses — 1987, 1929 — you must still stand firm in the market. That's what it means to be worthy. The people nowadays, always begging for government bailouts — they've never seen hard times. In 1929, even the American government was powerless — the government couldn't even save itself. Yet if you were a steel warrior, you would have stood firm all the same.
In this world, there is nothing you can rely on — even if that thing is called the government. All we need is the correct method of operation, and with this method, forge ourselves into steel warriors. Everything else is empty talk.
缠中说禅 2008/3/18 21:10:04
When "this ID" completely stops talking about stocks, that's when the market will have bottomed!!!
Right now "this ID" talks about stocks every day, twice a day — clearly, the market is far from the bottom!!!
Whether there will be an intermediate rally is unknown, and how high is even harder to say.
But the purpose of an intermediate rally is only one thing: to trap a batch of so-called experts!
This bull market rose ferociously, so the bear market decline will be even more thorough!
Without a doubt, this bear market is a replay of the bubble bursts in Taiwan and Japan's stock markets!
However, it's not yet comparable to the U.S. in 1929.