The Farces in China's Property and Stock Markets Are All Caused by the Poisonous Legacy of "Great Savior" Thinking!

2006/4/24 21:08:18

The so-called "Great Savior" mentality in the market is the hope that external forces will come to one's rescue, and when no one does, throwing a tantrum to coerce the government into playing the "Great Savior" role. In the past decade or so, this has been most prominently displayed in the farces of China's property and stock markets.

There are too many stock market farces, so let's just take the biggest one of the year—the share reform. When it was first proposed, there was universal wailing, and the so-called "Great Savior" mentality demanding market rescue was rampant. This ID posted multiple times vehemently opposing market rescue, pointing out that the stock market would naturally rise once it fell to the right level, that everyone should just do what they're supposed to do, that all market rescue efforts end in tragedy, and that a stock market dependent on "Great Savior" thinking would never grow up. This ID never writes posts praising officials, but when the stock market plunged right after share reform was announced last year, I published three consecutive articles praising that man from Shandong, and explicitly stated: "The G-spot of the stock market is G-shares." Looking back now, all of this has been proven correct. If they had caved to the "Great Savior" mentality back then and rescued the market instead of proceeding with share reform, the market would be playing around at 800 points right now! This share reform was the first time China's stock market stood firm against "Great Savior" mentality rhetoric. Moreover, the method of having shareholders of each individual stock negotiate and determine the consideration through bargaining was also a first in Chinese history—this is the key to the success of the share reform!

Now let's talk about the property market. When the government first started cracking down on the property market last year, this ID wrote a post explicitly pointing out that this behavior was a replication of the stock market farce of the past decade or so, and clearly stated that the property market would not be changed by this absurd "Great Savior" game—it would go however it was going to go. Even the dumbest person can see that this world-scale resource bull market naturally has its own developmental trend. When the energy has not yet been exhausted, everything is merely adding fuel to the fire. In technical terms, this is called the third major upward wave. Being bearish in a major bull market—even ten thousand "Great Saviors" couldn't save you!

In the market, Engels's analogy of vector addition is best exemplified. There is no Great Savior in the market that directs its course—those who manipulate the market are ultimately abandoned by the market. This applies equally to all governments. And for market participants, any hope of being sheltered by a "Great Savior" is childish and laughable. When you beg the stock market not to fall when it's falling, or the property market not to rise when it's rising, you ultimately become nothing but cannon fodder in the market. The market will only rest or change direction after everyone who could become cannon fodder has become cannon fodder. The market is the market. The cannon fodder in the market are precisely those who try to be a "Great Savior" or those who seek to be saved by a "Great Savior"—and the great market of human society is exactly the same!