3462 Points Works Its Magic Right on Schedule

2008/4/3 15:24:59

Today's trend probably caught many people off guard, but it certainly didn't surprise this ID, nor anyone who watched this ID's market commentary yesterday. Yesterday's commentary clearly told you there would be another round. So — was this round satisfying?

Yesterday, I also mentioned the issue of financial sector moves spreading to real estate, non-ferrous metals, and so on. Today — did you enjoy that clever donkey's performance? Someone said yesterday, "Aren't these supposed to be thematic stocks?" But aren't stocks like Yunnan Aluminum and Chalco in this ID's stock pool? Sold at 50–60, bought back at the buy point below 20 — is that a crime? Some people are seriously ill.

Military strategy knows no fixed form. If we're going to see the largest-magnitude upward move of the year, how could it happen without the China-prefix stocks rallying? Thematic stocks will of course continue, but a complete wave of market action is the rotation sequence of first-tier, second-tier, and third-tier stocks. Isn't that the simplest logic? What's there to debate?

Of course, all of this is still just a blueprint for now, because the actual market hasn't played it out yet. Treating it as a rebound for the time being is the safer approach — and if the situation turns, flip short and slam it hard. Wouldn't that be delightful?

Obviously, yesterday's 3462 points played a significant role today. The market ultimately paused right before that level. Since many were betting on news today, a small gap-down at the close to let people out was only fair.

Next week is a critical week, because whether the daily and weekly charts can form bottom fractals depends on this. Of course, for the short term, all of this can be simplified to the question of whether 3462 points can be firmly held. Once it holds, these fractal formations won't be an issue at all.

On the individual stock front, watch the rotation sequence among first-tier stocks and the direction of new capital flows. Also, if there's no news on Monday, watch the intensity of any pullback — if the pullback is mild, that actually proves this trend has real substance.

Today's chart was hyper-technical. Here's a homework assignment: what was the specific technical significance of the period from 1:30 PM to 2:00 PM? Why was it that once a certain level was held, a major breakout immediately followed, attacking upward toward 3462 points?

Closing a day early — simply wonderful. Drizzle during Qingming Festival; water signifies wealth.

Signing off. Goodbye.