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Sorry, Just Got Back — A Few Words.

2007/7/27 23:09:24

Started catching up on indulgence right after market close. Just got back, and tomorrow the indulgence continues — no rest this weekend. As I said this morning, for the bulls, the second scenario was the best one. Today, with overseas markets plunging, for things to end up like this, the various torch bearers put in the effort. It's got this ID feeling almost a bit embarrassed — though of course, that's just lip service. This ID has always been perfectly at ease profiting while riding the sedan chair; there's nothing to be embarrassed about.

Since many of the torch bearers only gradually re-entered above 4000 points, the chance of torch bearers turning into weightlifters has greatly increased. Early next week, it all comes down to these weightlifters' ability to hold up the barbell. If they hold it, naturally there'll be an even broader wave of bears flipping to bulls. If not, a false breakout will trigger an avalanche. This ID has no hobby of lifting barbells — but if certain people can't hold it up, this ID would be more interested in giving them a couple of kicks while they're at it. Of course, if all the weightlifters can go faster, higher, and stronger, then this ID is happy to sway on the sedan chair a bit longer.

Some might curse this ID for being despicable and shameless — why just light the torch but not lift the barbell, why not charge straight up? This ID's brain isn't waterlogged enough for that. I only enjoy lighting torches, not lifting barbells. Moreover, this ID has said many times: as long as we're above 3700 points, this ID has no objection to however the market moves. Now, those who were wailing like ghosts at 3600 points have suddenly all become bull leaders, all proclaiming how brilliant and prescient they were. This ID just acts — these pointless hats, whoever wants to wear them can go ahead and put them on.

Unless the market has the power to blast in one breath straight to 6000–8000 points, during this phase, before the daily MACD breaks above its prior high, this ID can only consider us to be in a divergence segment. For this ID, unless the divergence segment is invalidated, everything is in the process of precise positioning through nested intervals. To avoid a divergence segment, one needs to meticulously control the MACD pattern on the daily chart — which of course is not a problem for this ID. But whether those numerous weightlifters can ultimately accomplish this, this ID will watch carefully from the sedan chair. Once they fumble it, this ID will give them a good kicking to teach these pretty boys a lesson and broaden their horizons.

For retail investors: once a move develops, you must follow the movement's own inherent logic. Shouting slogans is not trading — stocks are for trading, not for shouting slogans. If the market can maintain oscillating consolidation roughly along the line connecting the two prior highs, then it will strengthen. Otherwise, it faces a fierce cleanup after a false breakout.

Since the first scenario from this morning's analysis did not materialize today, the remaining possibilities are only scenarios two, three, and four. Under the second scenario, next week's weekly candle is basically one of three shapes: a long bearish candle, a doji or small candle, or a candle with a long upper shadow. Of these, only the long bearish candle carries huge risk. Therefore, as long as you watch the 5-day moving average or the line connecting the two prior highs — as long as these lines hold, a long bearish candle is impossible. The corresponding movements can all be handled by holding positions or using partial positions for hub oscillation operations.

In summary, early next week's movement is critically important. If it rises first then falls, once another upward attempt fails or a short-term divergence appears on the 15-minute or higher chart, it will trigger a forceful correction. Conversely, falling first then rising would make the movement more relaxed. On individual stocks, today's hot spots began spreading to non-index-component stocks — this is a relatively good sign. If this phenomenon can persist, then even if the broader market corrects, subsequent moves will have something to look forward to. Otherwise, caution is warranted.

Concert on Sunday. Signing off. Have a pleasant weekend of indulgence, everyone. See you.