Regardless of What Happens in Other Cities, Beijing Housing Prices Have No Possibility of Declining.

I previously wrote a post about the real estate market becoming stock-market-like. But an important characteristic of stock-market-ification is the differentiation of individual stocks. Even in a bear market, there are stocks hitting new highs -- the real estate market is the same. Beijing is precisely such a stock. Regardless of what happens in other cities, Beijing housing prices have no possibility of declining.

This lady lives near the Second Ring Road. Never mind the Second Ring -- if you're on the east or north side, there are barely any plots left to build on even near the Fourth Ring. This lady has bought properties in no fewer than one location. In other places, few people pay in full like this lady does. But in Beijing there are plenty. At least where I currently live, most people pay in full at once. Beijing's high-end properties never worry about finding buyers.

As for Beijing's demolition compensation prices, they're also absurdly high. Other places probably haven't seen demolition prices of over 10,000 yuan per square meter. Many original city residents, after receiving demolition compensation, go to a slightly more distant area and buy a much larger apartment with money left over. Due to these people and the hordes fighting to get into Beijing, even apartments in Tongzhou can't possibly be too cheap. There's basically no downside room, and the buying support is staggering.

Moreover, Beijing's housing prices aren't expensive at all compared to other places like Jiangsu-Zhejiang or Qingdao. Once a real estate company invited me to Qingdao and told me that buildings near the Olympic sailing venue by the sea were all above 20,000/sqm. Then they went to a relatively remote area, pointed at some small run-down buildings and said: "Look, these still cost 10,000!" By comparison, Beijing's housing is practically too cheap: for instance, within 200 meters of the main Olympic venue, there are buildings at 7,000/sqm.

Let price cuts happen elsewhere -- around the Olympics, Beijing's housing won't drop. As for stock commentators and housing commentators -- they can say whatever they want. How could capable people possibly become stock commentators or housing commentators? Economic history has proven countless times: stock commentators, housing commentators, and prophets all end up as jokes.

Declaration: All properties this lady has purchased are for personal residence. I have never owed a bank a single cent. The above views have nothing to do with any private interests.