On the North Korean Problem, One Must Not Be Short-Sighted

Recently, some people have again begun peddling the notion that we shouldn't waste our worry on North Korea, saying things like war won't break out and the probability is very small. Such people are either harboring ulterior motives or short-sighted.

This young lady has already, in previous posts on the Korean issue, given a very clear characterization of the problem's significance for China: from an East Asian perspective, the Korean problem is a seven-party game (China, the US, Russia, Japan, North Korea, South Korea, and Taiwan). From a global strategic perspective, it is the key to a major transition between old and new world orders. East Asia, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia will be the positions where this transition is ultimately decided. From China's standpoint, there absolutely must be no missteps in East Asia. East Asian affairs should be led by East Asia, and ultimately by China -- this is the only direction for the problem's final resolution. Examining the Korean problem from this angle, the thinking becomes clear.

Given this characterization, China should go all out to achieve leadership on the Korean problem, making comprehensive preparations. Every possible scenario should be considered with corresponding contingencies prepared. Whether war happens or not is not in itself the question -- it should be directed within China's overall East Asian strategic planning. Put bluntly, China should extract maximum national interest from leading on the Korean problem.

So can China possibly take the lead on the Korean problem? Of course it can, and its position is the most favorable. Since this involves some sensitive matters, let me just illustrate by analogy. Anyone who has been in business knows the easiest way to gain dominance and maximum benefit: eating from both ends. Eating from both ends naturally requires skill, but this is precisely what makes business brilliant -- moreover, after eating from both ends, both sides still thank you. That is the highest of the high. From China's current position, China can absolutely not only eat from both ends on the Korean problem but eat all six other parties clean while leaving them unable to complain.

In short, if you don't become the big brother, you'll inevitably end up the little brother. The Korean problem is an excellent opportunity for China to step onto the path of big brotherhood. If China doesn't seize it and put more effort into this problem, finding another opportunity later will be much harder.