Detailed Analysis of "The Analects": For All Those Who Misinterpret Confucius (50)
2007/2/5 15:04:29
The Master said: Indeed! When your children follow petty people, disaster and affliction result. Cling to them and one loses one's offspring; go against them and one sows hatred.
Yang Bojun: Confucius said: "Only women and petty people are hard to get along with. Get close to them and they become insolent; keep distance and they become resentful."
Qian Mu: The Master said: "Only household concubines and servants are the most difficult to manage. If you are close to them, they will not know deference. If you keep your distance, they will resent you."
Li Zehou: Confucius said: "Only women and petty people are hard to deal with; get close and they're not humble; keep distance and they complain."
Detailed explanation: Among the most maligned chapters of The Analects, this one can definitely rank in the top five. What's laughable is that in this successive distortion of Confucius — whether by supporters or opponents — everyone, like the three above, has gotten even the basic punctuation wrong. "唯" is a sentence-initial particle used to introduce a sentence, with no meaning in itself. "女" in The Analects always stands for "汝" (you) — for example, "女与回也" and "女为君子儒" — nowhere is it interpreted as "woman." As for "子" specifically meaning "son," that is a much later usage. In the era of The Analects, "子" referred to children of either gender without specifically denoting sex. "女子" thus means "your children." "与," whose original meaning is "to bestow, to give," extends to "follow." "为" means "to become." "难" means disaster, calamity. "养" is a phonetic loan for "痒" (itch/ailment).
A person's actual existence is inseparable from "hearing, seeing, learning, and practicing" (闻、见、学、行). Having "heard" and "seen," one therefore "learns," and ultimately acts according to what one has "learned." All of a person's actions bear the imprint of "hearing, seeing, and learning." All real human behavior is not water without a source — it is all connected to some prior "hearing, seeing, and learning." People's "behaviors" influence each other, gradually constituting society's behavioral patterns. For "learning" — the hub of "hearing, seeing, learning, and practicing" — the most practical question is "from whom to learn." Any "learning" also involves a practical matter of "choosing a teacher." Here, "teacher" does not refer solely to a person. The Western saying about valuing truth over the teacher merely narrows the concept of "teacher." Everything from which you can "learn" is a "teacher." But "teachers" have their ranks and positions. The difference between a junzi (exemplary person) "learning" and a xiaoren (petty person) "learning" is that the petty person diminishes the self, turning a person who should stand tall between heaven and earth into a slave to power, fame, profit, and desire — into a slave of some so-called a priori model. People's eyes are all blinded and ruined by these petty-person "teachers."
"近" means to cling to, to attach. "之" refers to the aforementioned "petty person." "孙" here carries its original meaning, not a phonetic loan, extending to "descendants/offspring." Clinging to a petty person necessarily means clinging to their "learning," and then the lineage of "disciples and grand-disciples" continues endlessly — all becoming offspring of the petty person and the petty person's "learning," no longer your offspring. "远" means to go against. The "learning" of petty people always depends on a priori false assumptions, treating these false assumptions as "God." Once someone goes against them, it inevitably threatens the existence of their "learning," and hatred naturally takes root. Why? The "learning" of petty people is ultimately the foundation of their real-world power, fame, profit, and desires. Anyone who uproots their real-world foundation — how could that not provoke hatred? Especially when someone who initially followed their "learning" ultimately goes against it — such hatred is not easily dissolved. So-called factional disputes and purging of the ranks all originate from this kind of hatred. Once the initial "choice of teacher" goes wrong, the subsequent problems become endless. Whether clinging to or going against — both become disaster and affliction.
The "learning" of the junzi is not a private doctrine; it has no factionalism whatsoever. Heaven and earth, no matter how vast, are but a speck of dust within your mind — what is there to be factional about? The "learning" of the junzi is a learning that is grounded in reality yet not made captive by reality, that traces things to their ultimate source yet is not confined thereby, that "does not attach to appearances" yet has no "not attaching to appearances" — it is a learning of no-learning yet leaving nothing unlearned. The "learning" of the junzi must first establish a "person" who stands tall within the structure of "heaven, earth, and humanity." This "person" is not the waste product piled up from what humanists call human nature garbage. A person — even infinity cannot constrain them; without the person, infinity itself cannot be named. How then could it be defined by so-called human nature garbage?
Chán Zhōng Shuō Chán's Vernacular Direct Translation
子曰：唯！女子与小人为难、养也。近之则不孙，远之则怨。
Confucius said: Indeed! When your children follow petty people in "hearing, seeing, learning, and practicing," disaster and affliction result. Clinging to petty people, one loses one's offspring; going against petty people, one sows hatred.
(To be continued)
Plagiarism is strictly prohibited; violators will be prosecuted.
Replies
缠中说禅 2007/2/5 15:21:45
Xiao Ming
2007-02-05 14:46:13
Chan mm, that Shandong one — how come the several people inside aren't making a move?
The capable Jiangxi one's wash is about done, right?
==
This ID only has one pair of hands — can't take care of this many stocks every day. Look at how 416, 777, 998, and 343 have walked — this ID has no time to manage the others. Things have to be done in order, one at a time. Those stocks are all stronger than the broader market — once the market stabilizes, if someone just nudges them a bit, they can take off.
缠中说禅 2007/2/5 15:25:03
Note: for stocks like 416, 777, 998, and 343, if you didn't buy at the low, absolutely do not chase the highs. This ID's principle is simple: when it should rise, let it rise; when it should be hammered, hammer it. The chart speaks.
As for something like 999 — you look at the chart now, where is there any divergence? Without divergence, how can it rally? The current decline is completely normal — "trend completeness is inevitable" — this is the third segment of the hub formation.
缠中说禅 2007/2/5 15:28:13
[Anonymous] 摄影之友
2007-02-05 14:49:38
Dear blogger:
My heart aches from the drops. Now I understand why you said in the high-efficiency small/medium capital buying method, try not to participate in adjustments.
I don't even dare look at stocks anymore. With drops like this, it's hard to do short-term swings. I can only buy.
Today marks exactly six months since I entered the market — half a year. But today wasn't a good one :(
==
This isn't a long-term solution. You should follow what this ID says: sell at sell points, buy at buy points. If you absolutely refuse to do any short-term trades and just hold on for dear life, how can you reduce your cost basis? Those who hold on for dear life are most likely to panic-sell at the bottom. If you insist on holding dead, there's no need to learn this ID's theory. Just use fundamental analysis, pick one stock, and hold it long-term.
For stocks held long-term, you absolutely must do more short-term swings, especially when large-level hubs are forming.
缠中说禅 2007/2/5 15:32:24
[Anonymous] 站在子弹上
2007-02-05 15:26:37
Hello OP, reading your posts has been very rewarding.
I have a question: using divergence you can safely buy and sell. But how do you improve capital efficiency? Do you have any better techniques in this regard? Thanks.
==
If you can truly buy at buy points and sell at sell points, that's already the most efficient. Of course, stock selection is also important — the amplitude between buy and sell points of different stocks determines the magnitude of efficiency. That's a topic for later.
缠中说禅 2007/2/5 15:49:00
[Anonymous] Night雨
2007-02-05 15:31:07
Beautiful sis, do you think 600028, 000798, and 600011 have potential? I feel they've dropped a lot and wanted to do a swing trade, but couldn't find the buy point right. Didn't execute, and now I'm 5% down.
==
5% is nothing — one rebound and you'll start making money.
A word for everyone: since skill levels vary, trade according to your own level, working with chart patterns you can read. Some patterns are particularly simple and standard — start with those. For those your chart-reading level hasn't reached yet, just avoid them. This is a more viable approach. As your skill improves, you'll be able to handle more and more patterns.
缠中说禅 2007/2/5 15:50:54
[Anonymous] 缠文观止
2007-02-05 15:26:17
Three classifications of trends: uptrend, downtrend, consolidation. All trends can be decomposed into these three situations.
Uptrend: the most recent high is higher than the previous high, and the most recent low is higher than the previous low.
Downtrend: the most recent high is lower than the previous high, and the most recent low is lower than the previous low.
Consolidation: the most recent high is higher than the previous high but the most recent low is lower than the previous low; or the most recent high is lower than the previous high but the most recent low is higher than the previous low.
All movements at any level can be decomposed into two types: trends and consolidation, where trends are further divided into uptrends and downtrends.
Basic concepts:
Movement: what you see when you open a chart. Movements come in different levels.
Movement type: uptrend, downtrend, consolidation.
Trend: uptrend, downtrend.
Chan Theory consolidation: in any movement at any level, if a completed movement type contains only one Chan Theory hub, it is called consolidation at that level.
Chan Theory trend: in any movement at any level, if a completed movement type contains at least two sequentially same-direction Chan Theory hubs, it is called a trend at that level. If the direction is up, it's called an uptrend; if down, a downtrend.
===
These issues have been discussed before. Without hub-based definitions, one uses the general common definitions, which are not very precise. Only definitions using this ID's hub-based approach are precise.
缠中说禅 2007/2/5 15:54:28
[Anonymous] asdf
2007-02-05 15:46:02
Queen Chan, sometimes during downtrends, each successive wave has shorter MACD green bars and smaller area. Sometimes when the second wave is smaller than the first, I think it's divergence, but then there are more waves and it keeps dropping. How do you find the last wave and confirm which one is the divergence?
==
MACD is only supplementary, not everything. You first need to clearly identify the trend. If the consolidation is caused by a trend, you must first identify the divergence segment. If the 30-minute chart shows a sharp decline, how useful is a 1-minute divergence? The key is to first find divergence at a larger level, then use smaller-level divergence to find the precise buy point — that's what's useful. Like the current market: you first establish that it's now in the 5-minute divergence segment, then look for buy points on the 1-minute. That's precise. Of course, the best is finding buy points using 5-minute divergence within a 30-minute divergence segment — that's relatively safe for short-term trading.
缠中说禅 2007/2/5 15:56:16
[Anonymous] 站在子弹上
2007-02-05 15:51:01
Thank you OP for the answer.
My feeling is that the stronger the first trend segment going up, the better the entry point after the second hub is established, then breaking through the hub and pulling back to confirm. The subsequent amplitude should be considerable and the speed shouldn't be slow either.
Please comment, OP.
===
Go study the third-type buy point carefully. But for small levels, the third-type buy point carries some risk — not that it won't rise, but that with T+1, if it rises you may not be able to sell.
缠中说禅 2007/2/5 16:02:07
[Anonymous] 插班生
2007-02-05 15:50:40
[Anonymous] asdf
2007-02-05 15:46:02
Queen Chan, sometimes during downtrends, each successive wave has shorter MACD green bars and smaller area. Sometimes when the second wave is smaller than the first, I think it's divergence, but then there are more waves and it keeps dropping. How do you find the last wave and confirm which one is the divergence?
=========
I have the same problem. Today's Baosteel on the 5-minute chart is like this. Please advise, OP.
==
The first two are clearly not divergences. You first need to form a trend, meaning there must be two hubs. Once the last one appears, it means you've entered the divergence segment — i.e., the 5-minute bottom area. Then look at the 1-minute for precise buy points.
缠中说禅 2007/2/5 16:18:22
[Anonymous] 职业轿夫
2007-02-05 15:10:37
Why is there such a big gap between 600151 and your stock when they're both military-industrial concepts?! Nobody loves it!!! Sis, just take it for one night!
==
No worries — they'll all catch up later. It's just that the people inside are more gentle, not as ruthlessly aggressive as this ID.
缠中说禅 2007/2/5 16:21:26
[Anonymous] 清
2007-02-05 16:12:02
Why no mention of the "pipe" anymore???
==
778 is fine, moving very steadily. This stock — this ID originally used it as a reserve. In case something went wrong, it would be cashed out. But things are fine for now. This ID is continuously generating profits elsewhere, which is why there's money to open a position in 000938. But absolutely don't blindly chase this stock — this ID is doing a medium-term ambush, so watch the chart carefully and take it easy.
缠中说禅 2007/2/5 16:30:59
[Anonymous] 糊涂
2007-02-05 15:59:04
Hello Chan sis,
600879 (Rocket Stock): I bought at the 15-minute divergence points at 10:45 and 14:30 yesterday, but you said that was only consolidation divergence. Then is today's 09:45 a divergence? Because two hubs have formed: 01/10:00–01/14:15 and 02/10:45–02/15:00.
Today I sold everything at the 5-minute divergence point at 14:05.
Was my judgment correct?
After selling, I feel like I won't be able to buy it back — do I still have a buy point?
==
Your understanding is wrong. First, consolidation divergence isn't necessarily worse than trend divergence — for example, consolidation divergence at second-type or third-type buy points won't be too bad. With consolidation divergence, you must guard against it turning into a third-type buy/sell point — this requires looking at the bigger picture comprehensively. For instance, if a 30-minute downtrend has just broken down, then a 5-minute consolidation divergence has a 99% probability of converting into a third-type sell point. So there's generally no need to participate in such consolidation divergences. But if the 30-minute is just starting an uptrend, a 5-minute downward consolidation divergence is actually a good buy point. For this stock, stand on the weekly chart and look — what is the current pullback? You can't just look at one level; your perspective needs to be comprehensive.
缠中说禅 2007/2/5 16:35:28
[Anonymous] 中间体
2007-02-05 16:29:46
Chan sis, if you don't answer, I'll start calling you Chan granny.
------------------------------
Chan sis, regarding the ABC three-segment divergence, sometimes the B segment's counter-movement is too strong, causing the MACD pullback to be excessive (hub level too high??) and the chart becomes hard to read. Does this turn into a larger hub?
==
If the B segment doesn't pull back near the zero axis, the conditions aren't met at all — otherwise any three segments could be used for MACD divergence judgment, and that would be chaos. The conditions must first be met.
缠中说禅 2007/2/5 16:41:19
[Anonymous] 小注
2007-02-05 16:25:23
Is 601628 really heading for 30?
==
30 — good, then this ID can start re-entering.
缠中说禅 2007/2/5 16:42:22
[Anonymous] 恒旧常新
2007-02-05 16:40:43
Teacher, a question about hubs: in the A\B\C three segments forming a hub, can the high point of B (in a rising hub) be higher than A's high? In a falling hub, can B's low be lower than A's low?
==
Of course — any situation is possible, as long as the three segments have overlap.
缠中说禅 2007/2/5 16:44:27
[Anonymous] 摄影之友
2007-02-05 15:39:42
Dear blogger:
Thank you for your reply. It comforted my wounded heart... truly. My heart was aching.
I do short-term trades on the others. Got 0.70 yuan on China Life the day before. But 999 — I just can't bring myself to sell! Only buying, unwilling to let go...
See you tomorrow!!!!! Thanks boss!
===
Just hold it medium-term. How do you still have China Life? Didn't you sell everything at 48?
缠中说禅 2007/2/5 16:45:32
[Anonymous] 中间体
2007-02-05 16:42:43
Chán Zhōng Shuō Chán
2007-02-05 16:35:28
[Anonymous] 中间体
2007-02-05 16:29:46
Chan sis, if you don't answer, I'll start calling you Chan granny.
------------------------------
Chan sis, regarding the ABC three-segment divergence, sometimes the B segment's counter-movement is too strong, causing the MACD pullback to be excessive (hub level too high??) and the chart becomes hard to read. Does this turn into a larger hub?
==
If the B segment doesn't pull back near the zero axis, the conditions aren't met at all — otherwise any three segments could be used for MACD divergence judgment, and that would be chaos. The conditions must first be met.
------------------------------------
It did pull back to the zero axis, but if the pullback is excessive, doesn't it become a larger hub?
===
"Excessive pullback" is a vague concept. You can't be vague in trading — vagueness leads to big problems.
缠中说禅 2007/2/5 16:59:23
[Anonymous] 缠文观止
2007-02-05 16:41:46
It moved to page 3 so fast. Let me repost my question for Chan MM to see.
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"Chan Theory Hub Theorem Three": The destruction of a certain level's "Chan Theory hub" occurs if and only if a sub-level movement leaves that hub and the subsequent sub-level pullback movement does not return to within that hub.
The combination of these two sub-level movements in Theorem Three has only three types: trend + consolidation, trend + counter-trend, consolidation + counter-trend.
In the trend + consolidation combination, the value hub within the trend and the value hub within the consolidation are of different levels, with the latter being higher.
If a sub-level consolidation type leaves the hub, the return naturally cannot also be a consolidation type — otherwise it would constitute a larger-level consolidation type, contradicting the premise of the original hub's maintenance.
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Above is an excerpt from the original text.
My question: in the combination of two sub-level movements "trend + consolidation," if the consolidation's value hub is higher-level than the trend's, how can they be called a combination of two sub-level movements? Is the consolidation here sub-level?
==
Whatever combinations the movement produces in reality are all possible combinations — that's perfectly normal. What meaning these combinations constitute as chart patterns is a separate question. These two are not the same concept.
Also, regarding "Chan Theory Movement Decomposition Theorem One": any movement at any level can be decomposed into a connection of "consolidation," "downtrend," and "uptrend" movement types at the same level. Could this theorem be explained or proved in more detail? It always feels a bit confusing. Particularly the modifying scope of the modifier "same level"? Do the "downtrend" and "uptrend" movement types mentioned in the theorem have to be trends?
===
Uptrend and downtrend are of course both trends. As for "same level," it means having identical hubs. As for two identical hubs superimposed, that may constitute hub expansion and such. A large-level consolidation can likewise be decomposed into connections of smaller-level movement types.
For any level's chart, if you classify using that level's hubs, anything that doesn't reach that hub level will necessarily have subsequent movement making the hub level reach that level. Anything exceeding that level can definitely be decomposed into combinations of hubs at that level — this shouldn't be hard to understand. So if you look in terms of that level's uptrends, downtrends, and consolidations, you get Theorem One.
缠中说禅 2007/2/5 17:02:00
[Anonymous] 诚诚
2007-02-05 16:56:03
OP, hello! Is there still opportunity in steel stocks? I bought 000898. Didn't have time to sell at the 30-minute divergence on Jan 30 (was it divergence?) and then didn't want to let go as it dropped, because you said steel is last year's nonferrous metals! Also 600386 — I can never time its swings. Please advise, thanks!
==
Wasn't it already said that steel is last year's nonferrous metals? Look at how nonferrous metals walked last year. Is 600386 a steel stock? Swing trading purely follows technique, unrelated to individual stock fundamentals.
缠中说禅 2007/2/5 17:03:26
[Anonymous] 糊涂
2007-02-05 16:52:25
Chán Zhōng Shuō Chán
2007-02-05 16:30:59
[Anonymous] 糊涂
2007-02-05 15:59:04
Hello Chan sis,
600879 (Rocket Stock): I bought at the 15-minute divergence points at 10:45 and 14:30 yesterday, but you said that was only consolidation divergence. Then is today's 09:45 a divergence? Because two hubs have formed: 01/10:00–01/14:15 and 02/10:45–02/15:00.
Today I sold everything at the 5-minute divergence point at 14:05.
Was my judgment correct?
After selling, I feel like I won't be able to buy it back — do I still have a buy point?
==
Your understanding is wrong. First, consolidation divergence isn't necessarily worse than trend divergence — for example, consolidation divergence at second-type or third-type buy points won't be too bad. With consolidation divergence, you must guard against it turning into a third-type buy/sell point — this requires looking at the bigger picture comprehensively. For instance, if a 30-minute downtrend has just broken down, then a 5-minute consolidation divergence has a 99% probability of converting into a third-type sell point. So there's generally no need to participate in such consolidation divergences. But if the 30-minute is just starting an uptrend, a 5-minute downward consolidation divergence is actually a good buy point. For this stock, stand on the weekly chart and look — what is the current pullback? You can't just look at one level; your perspective needs to be comprehensive.
Thank you Chan sis! I kind of understand now, but it's also a military-industrial concept — is there no opportunity?
==
Why not? Look at its weekly chart — does it look like there's no opportunity?
缠中说禅 2007/2/5 17:05:48
[Anonymous] 缠文观止
2007-02-05 16:46:37
The mathematical expression of the hub: A, B, C, with their respective highs and lows being a1\a2, b1\b2, c1\c2. The hub's range is [max(a2,b2,c2), min(a1,b1,c1)]. Hub formation has only two types: one formed by a rebound, one by a pullback. For the first type: a1=b1, b2=c2; for the second type: a2=b2, b1=c1. But regardless of type, the hub formula simplifies to [max(a2,c2), min(a1,c1)]. Clearly, segments A and C have the same direction as the hub formation direction. From this we can see that in hub formation and extension, it is determined by the overlap of sub-level movement type ranges that are consistent with the hub formation direction.
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Above is an excerpt from the original text.
Per the original text, A and C are co-directional with the hub formation, while B is counter-directional.
Then for a case of hub expansion, say two consecutive movements A and B each contain one same-level same-direction hub.
If these two hubs' oscillation ranges don't overlap, it's a trend.
If they overlap, hub expansion occurs.
For this expanded higher-level hub, are A and B its first two sub-level movements?
But A and B are co-directional (since their hubs are co-directional), which differs from the ABC situation described in the original text. How should this be understood?
I earnestly ask Chan MM for guidance.
==
Without the ABC three segments, there isn't even a hub — where does expansion even come in? First get the concepts straight.
缠中说禅 2007/2/5 17:10:54
[Anonymous] 炼铁设备
2007-02-05 15:47:49
Chán Zhōng Shuō Chán
2007-02-05 15:25:03
Note: for stocks like 416, 777, 998, and 343, if you didn't buy at the low, absolutely do not chase the highs. This ID's principle is simple: when it should rise, let it rise; when it should be hammered, hammer it. The chart speaks.
As for something like 999 — you look at the chart now, where is there any divergence? Without divergence, how can it rally? The current decline is completely normal — "trend completeness is inevitable" — this is the third segment of the hub formation.
==============================
For 416, I missed the 4.20 in the morning because I couldn't log into the trading system. In the afternoon at 4.35 I tentatively bought some. Suffered heavy losses on 999. 777, 998, and 343 are too expensive — dare not take the risk again.
==
You can't operate like this. You don't buy 416 at 3 yuan something, then wait until 4 yuan something to buy? That's essentially applying to get trapped. If you're not familiar with short-term trading, don't do it — first learn not to chase highs. If you didn't buy 416 at 3 yuan something, there's fundamentally no need to buy anymore. For those who already hold it, the focus should be on doing more short swings to bring down the cost basis.
The greatest advantage of this ID's theory is flexibility. If you can't learn it all at once, just hold 999 and wait for the ex-rights adjustment.
缠中说禅 2007/2/5 17:11:44
Tonight a friend comes from afar — must head off first. Goodbye.
缠中说禅 2007/2/5 15:18:33
Nothing much to say about the broader market's movement — it's in the bottoming-out process of the first segment on the weekly chart, which should end after at most a 30-minute level divergence. The current movement is simple: just wait for a 5-minute divergence to pull the 30-minute MACD back to the zero axis.
This 5-minute divergence will appear very soon — it's quite possible tomorrow. None of this requires prediction; just look at the chart. This morning's action only declared entry into the divergence segment; the precise divergence point still needs to be seen from the 1-minute level movement.
Nothing worth saying on individual stocks. All stocks this ID holds have walked stronger than the broader market — that's plain for all to see, so I won't elaborate. Just trade according to the charts.
Tomorrow there will be a powerful article titled "Next Target: Crush the Funds."
This ID is currently experimenting with one stock to see if it's possible.
Recently, this ID has been gradually building a position in 000938. Just entered — not much yet. Previously sold at over 90 yuan; now it looks cheap, so I'll ambush it. Note that this stock has negative fundamental news. Everyone's waiting for the bad news to drop before accumulating. If your technique isn't good, don't touch it.