Chatting About Stocks, Music, Housing, and My Illness
2008/7/9 16:06:27
Today let's have an assorted discussion. Stocks first. The market moving like this should all be within your expectations. Today sector rotation continued — nothing much to say. I just want to raise a question for everyone to think about, and tomorrow I'll specifically discuss it: using the simplest moving average method to perform a complete classification of current stocks, and thereby design the optimal short-term rotation trading strategy. These kinds of questions will benefit you for life. Please think it over carefully. More on this tomorrow.
Everyone should have noticed — this blog has music again today. Of course, since the hosting space for this ID's original music blog has been shut down, I can only find random music online. A couple of days ago I talked about singing, and today I've specially searched online for some recordings of a few older Chinese tenors whom this ID can still tolerate. Why all tenors? Because tenor is the hardest voice to train and the most technically demanding, so you can better appreciate the technical points this ID mentioned. In truth, from a purely technical standpoint, these singers all have quite a few flaws in their vocal technique. But their voices are far better than today's voices, which may be technically more polished but are numbingly uniform. Music isn't just technique — music must first be music. Otherwise, just get a sound-generating machine. Among current tenors, aside from Zhang Jianyi, Fan Jingma, Wei Song, and a few others who are still somewhat passable, the rest are unlistenable. Let them entertain themselves.
Yesterday while looking at houses, I noticed some people are already plotting a rebound. The government's attitude right now is critical — will it be hijacked, or will it remain steadfast (truthfully, it's never really been steadfast — there's too much of a performative element, to put it bluntly). The interest groups certainly won't sit idle (in fact, in this so-called correction, they haven't really been hurt — only some small fry have been cleaned out, while the real heavy hitters seem to have become even more powerful). Of course, based on this ID's understanding of the regulators, the probability of them being hijacked is far too high. The banking system alone is enough to keep them thinking. And in reality, the trick of using the banking system's so-called risks to hijack the state has been played for over a decade and is still being played, and the regulators fall for it every single time without fail. What more can this ID say?
Banks are banks. On one hand going through shareholding reform and commercialization, on the other still having the state carry the burden — where in the world is there such a perverse arrangement? If this exists, what does it say? If this is really how it's going to be, then just go ahead with a dual-track system. Set aside a few banks specifically as welfare-oriented institutions for low-income populations, guaranteed not to fail, with their business primarily sourced from government projects — this way they'd be basically guaranteed rain or shine. All other banks should be fully marketized. Real estate-related business in particular should only be conducted by marketized banks, and these banks can go bankrupt at any time — all risks borne by themselves. Then the state won't be saddled with this unrelated burden.
If you don't do this, the state will forever be held hostage. The current interest groups are gradually internationalizing. The national-level risk ahead — if you don't do a thorough overhaul — I'm afraid the day will come when even being hijacked is off the table, because in the not-too-distant future, it's entirely possible that you'll simply be knocked down directly. And who bothers hijacking someone who's been knocked down?
The dual-track system is certainly a crude method, but it corresponds to the inherently dual-structured foundation. Sometimes in this world, the crudest method is the best — that's called "fortune favors the fool." What's feared is that some people, unable to be clever and unwilling to be crude, still occupy the latrine. Well then, go eat that substance we don't discuss at the dinner table.
Finally, about this ID's illness. The current situation is neither as bad as those who curse this ID to die every day hope, nor as good as those who believe this ID has miraculous powers imagine. This ID has said that during the three-week intervals between the next two or three rounds of chemotherapy, my brother will handle things. But it appears that the effect of medication alone is limited. A cure within three weeks is virtually impossible. And TCM of course has more than just medication in its arsenal, but my brother currently seems to know only this one trick. The remaining lesion sites are in locations where drugs have difficulty reaching. For meaningful effect, it would probably take a year and a half of gradual grinding.
As for finding a master of the nineteen-route technique, I doubt any such person exists in the world today. The problem is that it seems hard to even find someone who knows ten routes. TCM has fallen into such neglect — it's truly heartbreaking. For now, I don't want to go directly to that extraordinary healer. Recently, my left side has started showing symptoms. This underlying condition was something that healer had warned about back then. Since no suitable practitioner was found, the condition has progressed. But this is not a cancer issue, nor a tumor — rather, it's the underlying condition that ultimately triggered the cancer. So Western medicine cannot possibly cure it. However, reducing the cancer tumors should still be achievable, so I'll wait for the chemotherapy resuming at month's end.
This ID doesn't want to use the pure meditation method to cure this illness for now, because that would prevent testing other methods' efficacy. Right now, this ID's body is an experimental subject. It's rare to have this kind of condition and opportunity — must cherish it.