That Night, His Bodily Fluids Sprayed All Over Me (XIV)
2006/10/8 23:51:21
XIV
"Even domestically, everyone is now wildly speculating on the internet economy. In the context of globalization, the domestic market is somewhat like a third-tier stock—it always goes crazy at the very tail end of a rally. From this, one can see that the internet economy is about to burst. And the bursting of the internet economy will inevitably trigger a massive migration of speculative capital into physical assets. This will be a major rally—everything related to resources will surge."
"You're that certain? Did you figure this out from technical charts?"
"Technical charts are only one aspect. At this stage of capitalist development, the game being played is precisely this dance between the virtual and the real. For speculative capital, what's needed is flow—a great river carrying everything downstream so that one can fish in muddied waters. Just like in physics, where potential energy converts to kinetic energy: in speculative markets, when the potential energy in one sector is exhausted, time is needed to accumulate new potential energy. At that point, that sector holds no meaning for speculative capital. Speculation can only speculate on high-potential-energy sectors—only high potential energy can trigger a flood."
"After the storms of the past two years, won't this speculative force face even stricter intervention from governments?"
"Governments are always behind the curve. And any speculative capital that enters a high-potential-energy sector at the right time is the safest of all. When the government intervenes, the prescient have long since vanished without a trace. The ones left holding the bag are always the self-righteous, glory-seeking fools."
"What's the big-picture outlook for the American economy?"
"This 90-year economic-political grand cycle that ultimately made America the world hegemon began in 1929. In 1974, at the halfway point of the cycle, the oil crisis formed a medium-scale adjustment. The financial storms of the past two years occurred precisely at the halfway point of the second half of the cycle. One can predict that around 2019, a brutal adjustment comparable to 1929 will occur. The halfway point between 1997 and 2019 is 2008. The highs corresponding to such cyclical lows generally lean right, so the rally recovering from 1997 should extend at least until after 2008 before a high might appear."
"So you're saying the NASDAQ's current major rally will run past 2008?"
"If that were the case, how could I have just said the internet economy is about to burst? What we're discussing now is the overall economic cycle. The NASDAQ is just one small sector. Once the NASDAQ is wrecked, one can move on to speculate on resource-related futures and stocks—and in fact, only by wrecking the NASDAQ can one then move to resource-related futures and stocks. It's like sector rotation—the leader of each wave is not fixed. Of course, after the NASDAQ's adjustment, it could potentially make new highs. That's not entirely impossible. But one would have to wait until speculative capital in other sectors has had its fill, and if there's still spare time and a catalyst can be found, then they might come back for another round. That would depend on the confluence of timing, conditions, and people."
"How's the domestic speculative environment lately?"
"Not bad. Still carrying on with Chinese characteristics. Chinese people's speculation naturally has Chinese characteristics. You should understand that well."
"Naturally. Alright, hanging up."
(To be continued)
Comments
缠中说禅 2006/10/9 12:45:50
[Anonymous] Water Peach
2006-10-09 11:31:41
You witch, if you can't write anymore just stop. Rambling all over the place—what are you even writing?
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Ignorant fool!
缠中说禅 2006/10/9 0:13:24
Starting to get busy today. I may not be able to update this novel every day. As for the blog, there are still many other things to write. But whenever I have time, this ID will write as soon as possible.