The Attending Physician Describes Chan's Final Days: "That Night, I Kept Hearing His Delirious Murmuring"
March 21, 2009, 02:49 Oriental Morning Post
This issue's cover of the Oriental Morning Post
The Attending Physician Describes Chan's Final Days: "That Night, I Kept Hearing His Delirious Murmuring"
Fund Analysis magazine confirms Muzi was indeed Chan Zhong Shuo Chan and has passed away
"Linjiangxian" (To the Tune of Immortal by the River)
February 1, 2006
Turbid waves three thousand leagues of roiling muddy water,
Sitting alone in solemn solitude upon a lone peak.
The dragon hides, the lion sleeps, awaiting the tempest.
The heartless are all scoundrels,
Yet those with tears are heroes too.
A long sword leans against heaven, starlight in splendor,
Past and present pass before the eyes and turn to void.
Bowing and gazing up, one accepts whatever fate — success or failure.
Half a moon above the grey-green sea,
A single reed-raft on the great river, heading east.
Oriental Morning Post — Financial Weekly reporter / Lin Qi
Upon hearing that Chan Zhong Shuo Chan (hereafter "Chan") had passed away (see last week's Financial Weekly A46-47 "Famous Blogger 'Chan Zhong Shuo Chan' — Post-Mortem Mystery: Is He Yi'an Technology Operator Li Biao?"), Chan fans went nearly mad, flooding in with calls of doubt and inquiry. After calm investigation, the Financial Weekly reporter confirmed that Chan has indeed passed away.
Confirmed Deceased
This Tuesday, the Financial Weekly reporter finally reached a staff member at the Fund Analysis editorial office. The staff member, speaking in Beijing-accented Mandarin, stated that Muzi, who wrote columns for the magazine, was Chan, and that he had already passed away at the end of October last year. His true identity could not be disclosed.
To further confirm, the reporter contacted Dr. Liu, a physician who had traveled specifically to Guangzhou to treat Chan. Dr. Liu had written a blog post titled "Guangzhou's Sorrow", saying that his visit to see the patient felt less like a medical consultation and more like a spiritual baptism.
When the reporter asked whether Chan was Li Biao, Dr. Liu responded: "Why torment yourself over this? What Chan left behind for everyone is already abundant and precious. Seizing the present and grasping the future is what everyone needs to do."
Hearing this, the reporter pressed further — so does this mean Chan has truly passed away? This was the question Chan fans cared about most. Dr. Liu replied: "Draw your own conclusions."
Dr. Liu recalled in his blog the scene of treating Chan in October 2008: "On the afternoon of October 13, I took the 3:10 PM flight to Guangzhou. It was pouring rain when we landed. At 8 PM, I finally reached the patient's residence. Walking into that 'L-shaped' bedroom, I saw Chan for the first time. A very small person, body exposed, lying on the bed, so thin it was heartbreaking. His head was large, and there were terrifying tumors on his neck."
From the photograph of Li Biao at the November 2007 Pingxiang Innovation Capital Management inauguration ceremony, a visible lump can already be seen on the left side of his neck near the nape.
Dr. Liu continued: "That day [October 24, 2008], everyone left the hospital room before 7 PM, leaving only me to accompany Chan. Chan was running a high fever again, reaching 39.5°C... So I called Chan's uncle-in-law: 'Uncle, it seems like you brought me here to be a full-time caretaker. Chan's temperature has been holding at 39.5°C. If something terrible happens in the hospital, how do I explain it?' He told me he would immediately call the caretaker Old Chen to come back, but Old Chen didn't return all night either — he only came back to the hospital room at 7:40 AM the next morning. Chan's fever persisted. He wouldn't take medicine. The doctors used sedative antipyretics, but nothing could bring the fever down. Chan's consciousness was already unclear — one moment he'd say he saw someone arriving and ask me to open the door; the next he'd talk about how stocks were doing this or that, about the Taiwan dollar and so on... I spent the entire night listening to Chan's delirious murmuring."
Later, while Dr. Liu was treating Chan, police came specifically to investigate him. Someone had filed a report from Shenzhen, claiming a quack doctor was there swindling money. Dr. Liu sensed the situation was extremely complicated.
Chan wrote in his June 8, 2008 blog post: "Judging the market is not easy, but recognizing people is truly the hardest thing. A grave illness has taught me a great deal — among other things, even more about reading people. At the brink of life and death, all pretense and false affection shed their disguises, and every scheming heart is laid bare. This time, quite a few people showed their true colors upon hearing the announcement that this ID had only three months to live. The people I'm talking about are real people in the physical world — a fine show indeed, stripping away every mask of human duplicity. Once the masks are gone, true-hearted friends and brothers-in-death naturally reveal themselves — unknown, then known."
On July 14, 2008, Chan wrote in a blog post: "Even in illness there are true old-fashioned friendships. This ID normally hates to trouble people, but there's one friend, now one of the most powerful figures in business — the chairman of one of China's largest companies in one of the hottest industries. Compared to this ID lying sick, he's riding high. But this time, his true character really showed."
The "hottest industry" very likely referred to venture capital, and the largest company in China's VC industry is Shenzhen Innovation Investment Group (Shenchuangtou), whose chairman Jin Haitao was the former CEO of Yi'an Group — and also Li Biao's close friend.
Ultimately, perhaps it was fate: since Dr. Liu could do nothing more in Guangzhou, he returned to Beijing with regret and sorrow.
Dr. Liu recalled: "The greatest gain from this trip was receiving a spiritual baptism... I have always believed that as long as the patient doesn't give up, I won't give up. But at that moment, I had to say sorry to Chan — too many obstacles. Perhaps it was heaven's will. I could not continue."
"Biao, Go Well"
Although Fund Analysis had publicly acknowledged that Muzi was Chan, many Chan fans still refused to believe the facts.
The Financial Weekly reporter's investigation also found that Chan had multiple articles published first in Fund Analysis before appearing on his blog — strong evidence that Muzi and Chan were the same person. Moreover, Chan clearly valued the magazine deeply. Given Chan's abilities and personality, he would never write for an obscure publication. Yet he willingly let his articles appear in Fund Analysis before his own blog. Since Fund Analysis was co-founded by Li Biao, doesn't this provide further evidence that Chan was Li Biao?
A self-proclaimed "internet expert" among the netizens stated there was definitive evidence that Chan's blog articles were posted later than the Fund Analysis website — through the Internet Archive's cached snapshots of the Fund Analysis homepage from 2007, it could be seen that the magazine's articles consistently preceded Chan's blog. For instance, an article about the Hong Kong Stock Connect appeared on the Fund Analysis website on August 31, 2007, but didn't appear on the blog until September 24.
One netizen, vinager, left a comment on Chan Zhong Shuo Chan's blog: "Because I was too close, I could never face it. Seeing so many people care about him is deeply moving. He also hoped everyone would believe he had gone wandering and would soon return... Many things must wait many years before they can be told. Real life is far more cruel than this virtual life. I want to thank his good friend Old Chen for accompanying him to the very end... Biao, go well."
Biao — who else could that be but Li Biao?
"Living Like a Dog — Better to Break Free"
Oriental Morning Post — Financial Weekly reporter / Lin Qi
If Chan was an angel, no one would disagree.
A Born Polymath
Even when gravely ill and barely mobile, Chan managed to write nearly one article per day, reporting on his condition while analyzing the stock market and economy. Even when bedridden, he persisted in writing articles telling everyone where the market and economy were headed. His last article was published on October 10, 2008, and he passed away on October 31. In his final days, he was still thinking about his followers.
On October 5, 2008, he wrote a very high-quality article, "America's Bailout — A Farce", lengthy and thorough, exposing how the root of the global economic crisis was the US dollar system.
Just three days earlier, Chan had posted a safety report, mentioning that he'd discovered a pristine, extraordinary place on the frontier and planned to visit in early 2009. He playfully wrote: "I won't reveal the location yet — being selfish for once, to keep the claws of development at bay a little longer."
On September 25, 2008, Chan spent several hours crawling on the floor. "This is what 'recuperation' looks like. Pathetic. Everything is stripped away. Living like a dog — better to just break free."
Dr. Liu had mentioned that Chan had sleep disorders. On September 22, 2008, to get some sleep, Chan took a sedative pill. He was drowsy until the next day, and was furious. "Ten years ago, I could down an entire bottle and still go out drinking. How things have changed."
Besides stock trading, Chan loved writing poetry, composing verse for every holiday and occasion. On September 13, 2008, thinking it was the Mid-Autumn Festival (it was actually a day early), he wrote a Mid-Autumn poem titled "Homesickness" — his last poem on the blog.
His poems sometimes contained stock references, sometimes concealed his personal experiences, but often stopped short of full disclosure. The Mid-Autumn verse — "Too many targets, hard to expose / I raise my head beyond the stars / Looking back, torn both ways" — hinted at much, veiled in sighs.
Besides writing poetry, Chan was also a die-hard football fan. On September 11, 2008, upon arriving back in Guangzhou: "The moment I got to the serviced apartment, I heard England's good news. My mood was wonderful all day."
Deeply versed in Traditional Chinese Medicine and having developed his own system, Chan was also constantly searching for TCM masters to cure his illness. On August 17, 2008, he found a "miraculous healer" from Wuhan who performed just five minutes of therapy — the technique was unprecedented, the results immediate. This astonished Chan, who passionately wanted to become the healer's disciple. But the healer demurred, citing the secret family tradition.
Chan also had a great passion for composing music and singing. On July 7, 2008, he wrote a detailed article explaining singing techniques. Chan believed: "A person who cannot sing beautiful songs is truly pitiable. Life is short. If the human voice — this most exquisite of instruments — can accompany you through life's darkness and light, how beautiful that would be."
On July 1, 2008, already hospitalized, he actually wanted to go play billiards. He restrained himself in the end, hurrying back to the hospital to analyze the stock market for his followers.
Cold-Blooded Trading
Though Chan had extraordinarily diverse interests, none could overshadow his ruthless side in the capital markets.
"The market never believes in tears or nagging. You can do whatever you want, but as this ID has said, even this ID, when killing in the market, doesn't distinguish between friend and foe — because you can't tell them apart, and there's no time to try. Effective market time is too precious. When the blade flashes, getting cut is your own fault. Complaining only exposes your intelligence deficit. To become a steel warrior, to walk freely among flashing blades — hone your skills."
When operating stocks, he was indeed like a killer wielding a butcher's knife — but perhaps only this way could one be victorious in every battle.
From October 8, 2007, Chan announced a medium-term short position. The ideal top for the Shanghai index would be just above 6,100 points. Chan did not choose to crash the market to create the top. Instead, he went short at the resonance point of capital, technicals, and policy, then let the bulls destroy each other.
Ultimately, Chan achieved his target: pinning the Shanghai index top firmly at 6,124.04 points, leaving many bulls stranded at the summit.
Before announcing the medium-term short, Chan said something classic: "When it's falling, think about buying points. When it's rising, think about selling points. That's how you do stocks. Otherwise, stocks are doing you."
The remainder of this article from the Oriental Morning Post — Financial Weekly covers three additional major sections:
1. "Three Devout Disciples Carry Forward Chan Theory" — Profiles of three key followers ("Stone Monkey," "Market Student," and "Fish Who Loves to Smile") who worked to preserve and propagate Chan Theory after the master's passing, creating second classrooms, compiling complete archives of blog posts, and studying both the stock trading theory and the Analects commentary.
2. "19 Essential Points of Chan Theory: Three Who Attain My Dao Would Suffice" — A systematic summary of Chan's core trading philosophy, including:
- Economic actors who can't make money are wastes
- There are no market makers, only winners and losers
- Your preferences are your death traps
- The market needs only watching and doing
- Entanglement is always followed by a main wave
- No trend means no divergence
- There are only three safe buy points
- Investment ultimately competes on cultivation
- MACD has 90% accuracy for divergence detection
- Stock "value" is just bait
- Historical bottoms are not hard to find
- The divergence-reversal theorem
- Better to buy into declines than to buy into rallies
- Equanimity in honor and disgrace is the true way
- Without rhythm, there is only death
- Ten types of people to never become
- Holding > buying and selling
- Process determines success or failure
- The cleverer you are, the faster you fail
3. Practical Case Studies — Detailed technical analysis of specific stocks (Kweichow Moutai, Chihong Zinc-Germanium, ICBC, Haima Auto) illustrating how Chan applied the three buy points and divergence theory in real trading.
4. "Scaring the Stingy Maker into Taking Flight" — Colorful anecdotes of Chan "playing with market makers," describing his psychological warfare techniques against different maker personality types ("the cold type," "the timid type," "the newcomer type"), using mock-literary language.
5. "My Predictions of Bad Things Keep Coming True Like a Crow" — A chronological review of Chan's major prophetic calls:
- 2002: "America's adjustment is about to begin" — predicting the US economic downturn years before the 2008 crisis
- 2005-2007: "After the 998-point bottom comes a bull market" — correctly calling the historic bottom and subsequent rally
- 2007 September: "6,100 points is the top, then a major correction" — nailing the exact peak at 6,124.04 points one month before it happened
- Still-unverified predictions including "Japan will become a US state by 2025" and the 2019 global economic restructuring
The article concludes: "Chan still has some predictions that remain unverifiable today... Can only leave it to time to test."